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Originally published at The Miami Independent.
If the communist President Lula is defeated in Sunday’s runoff election in Brazil, it will be a major strategic and political victory, not only for all Brazilians, but for the Trump Administration.
The year of our Lord 2026 began gloriously with the surgical extradition of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and could end with the saving of Latin America’s keystone economy and country – which under the dictator/figurehead Lula and the totalitarian Supreme Court, that directly imprisons journalists and opposition Deputies for speaking out against it, is well on the path to Venezuelan chaos.
As the Epoch Times’ investigative journalist Josh Phillips, in his 5/8/26 video titled “Why Chinese Master Strategy Across America Just Collapsed” pointed out, Trump’s removal of Venezuela’s strong man headed off an imminent war. Maduro had sabber-rattled for months about the “re-conquest” of neighboring Guyana (and its newly discovered massive petroleum reserves), an invasion which Lula, according to Phillips, was “getting ready to support.” Thus a regional war, which would have dragged the U.S. into it, was averted.
A presidential win for Senator Flávio Bolsanaro, the eldest son of the imprisoned former president, would be the crown jewel of Trump’s strategic pivot to the Western Hemisphere, where our southern neighbors have been ignored and neglected to such an extent that China has become a major commercial partner (and Brazil’s largest, surpassing the U.S.).
Senator Bolsanaro managed a massive upset win in early October’s first round, besting Lula 47% to 45%. All polling had Lula gliding to an easy re-election (that is, after copying Biden’s 2020 “win,” when he stole the 2022 Brazilian Presidential election). It was the biggest upset in the Americas since Trump’s surprise 2015 victory over Hillary Clinton.
Since Brazil returned to a constitutional republic form of government in the 1980s, the winner of the first round has always gone on to win the second. In contrast to the erroneous polling prior to this election’s first round, all three of Brazil’s major (and left-leaning) polling organizations have Senator Bolsanaro beating Lula on Sunday. (Most of these polls were before the mid-October presidential debate, during which Lula threatened to investigate and jail Bolsanaro in his second term.)
If Brazilian patriots wrest control from their leftist masters on Sunday, it will be 8th and most important reversal of fortune in Latin American countries since Javier Milei defeated the socialist Peronists in Argentina in 2023.
The radical left’s steal of the last Brazilian presidential contest in 2022 was even more blatant than that which occurred here in 2020. Brazilians – normally a bright and optimistic people – were thrown into despair. Brazilian journalists forced into exile – mostly to Florida – opine that “too big to rig” is a valid concept also in Brazil. Yet as Allan dos Santos, the most followed journalist in exile pointed out, on the night of October 4th’s first round election, the count was suspended soon after 7pm in only the presidential contest. Up to that point, Senator Bolsanaro was above 50% on his way to a first round outright victory; when counting resumed, Lula steadily gained, bringing Bolsanaro’s tally to under 50% and forcing the runoff.
Brazilian leftists have decried “foreign interference” in the first round, pointing to the Trump Administration as the culprit. This is classic leftist projection, accusing your foes of exactly what you engage in. Back just prior to the 2022 steal, Sec. of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Brasil to warn against not accepting the coming election results.
Will the Trump Administration exert similar pressure? If Lula defies the election result, perhaps. But many commentators, noting the string of populist and rightist victories in Latin America after Trump’s return to power, have pointed to the defanging of USAID, the leftist honey pot of funds for radical causes around the world. Returning Latin America to free and fair elections appears to have been as easy as turning off the leftist money spigot.
If Bolsanaro wins, it will be a new dawn in hemispheric cooperation, towards a strong, free, and interdependent Americas – with the Chinese invaders mostly driven out. Notch up another massive foreign policy victory for Trump.
If Lula wins, Brazil will erupt – to counter a second steal.
Update: Allan dos Santa declared Saturday that, while the polls were supposedly closing prior to Friday’s night’s last debate, he believes Bolsanaro will defeat Lula, 56% to 44% in a landslide victory.
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