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Posted Zero Hedge
Why Trump Reportedly Ordered Military Not To Strike In Overnight
Axios reports that President Trump called off new U.S. military strikes on Iran Friday night, signaling a potential diplomatic offramp after nearly two weeks of tit-for-tat attacks.
People familiar with the decision told the outlet that the pause coincided with the arrival of Omani officials in Tehran for negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Here’s what those sources are saying:
- Trump’s order to hold fire was given several hours after an Omani delegation arrived in Tehran Friday for talks on a new arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Two regional sources with knowledge of the negotiations said progress has been made in the talks and that an agreement between Oman and Iran could be reached over the weekend.
More color:
- Trump’s decision reflects both his willingness to provide more space for diplomacy and a recognition that — short of a return to major combat operations — the current level of U.S. strikes has reached the limit of its effectiveness.
- If Trump orders a return to strikes, the U.S. military can mobilize on relatively short notice.
- The U.S. military is still preparing plans for a possible return to major combat operations, but Trump hasn’t given orders to move in that direction, the sources said.
Why the Trump administration is likely finding the offramp (again) …
•Gas Prices Nearing Levels That Could Push Trump Towards Iran Talks, Says JPM Commodities Expert
JPMorgan’s head of Global Commodities Research and Strategy, Natasha Kaneva, told clients: “In the previous round of escalations, negotiations were initiated once US gasoline prices reached $4.20 and became materially more urgent as prices neared $4.50. Oil may be a global commodity, but political tolerance for high energy prices remains overwhelmingly domestic.”
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