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Russia launched its single largest missile-and-drone attack of the war against Ukraine in the early hours of Sunday, July 12, striking Kyiv and multiple other cities with 68 missiles and 351 strike drones in what President Volodymyr Zelensky described as a “massive Russian attack.” Apartment buildings, offices, and a theological school were damaged in the capital. Air defenses downed most of the targets — but not the ballistic missiles, Zelensky acknowledged, underscoring a gap in Ukraine’s air shield that has persisted for months.
The overnight barrage — confirmed by Ukraine’s Air Force — dwarfed the 12 missiles and 121 drones that struck on July 10-11. Recovery operations were under way Sunday morning across Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Sumy oblasts. Moscow Times reported at least 8 dead and dozens wounded. Ukraine’s official figures — which CDM notes should be treated skeptically, as both sides routinely manage casualty optics — put the death toll at a similar range.
Hours before the attack, Zelensky posted on X that he had ordered a “40-day influence operation” — widely interpreted by analysts as a structured escalation of Ukrainian long-range drone and missile strikes deep into Russian territory. Ukraine has already struck the Syzran refinery 800 kilometers inside Russia, burned 76 Russian vessels in a week, and hit the Blue Stream pipeline. The 40-day signal suggests Kyiv intends to intensify this pressure campaign rather than wait for Western arms decisions or ceasefire diplomacy.
CDM read: The sheer scale of Sunday’s Russian strike — more than tripling the previous night’s barrage — suggests Moscow may be attempting to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses before Kyiv’s Patriot manufacturing license (granted at the Ankara summit) can produce interceptors at scale. The 40-day Ukrainian escalation order, meanwhile, signals that Zelensky sees long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure as his primary leverage — not territory, which continues to erode near Kostiantynivka.
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