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The fragile US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed in real time. In the early hours of Wednesday morning, US Central Command launched strikes against more than 80 targets inside Iran — hitting weapon launch sites, coastal air defenses, and surveillance infrastructure on the Iranian island of Qeshm, as well as the port cities of Sirik and Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes were ordered by Trump while he sat at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, in direct response to Iran’s attack on three commercial vessels transiting the strait on Tuesday, including a Qatari LNG tanker, the Al Rekayyat.
Iran fired back within hours. The IRGC’s Navy and Aerospace Force launched a joint missile-and-drone operation, claiming to have struck 85 US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. Air raid sirens sounded in both countries. Kuwait’s military said its air defenses were confronting “hostile” attacks. An MQ-9 drone was reportedly shot down. As of 0500 ET, no confirmed damage figures have been released by US Central Command — and CDM’s read is that early official damage assessments from both sides should be treated as narrative management, not ground truth.
At a press conference alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Ankara, Trump declared the Memorandum of Understanding signed with Iran in June — which had formally opened 60 days of nuclear negotiations — finished. “As far as I am concerned, it’s over,” Trump said. “I do not want to deal with them any more. They are scum… liars… cuckoo.” He then added, conspicuously, that “talks can continue” — a qualifier that suggests Washington’s door is not fully shut, whatever the rhetoric.
Tehran’s position: Iran’s Foreign Ministry accused the US of repeated MOU violations — citing the overnight strikes, Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon, and — crucially — the US Treasury’s decision on Tuesday to re-impose sanctions on Iranian oil exports, revoking the temporary waiver granted when the MOU was signed in June. Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, framed the sanctions reversal as the deeper American bad faith.
Rutte backed the US strikes at the summit, calling Iranian ceasefire violations “unacceptable.” Trump separately lashed out at Spain at the same press conference, ordering Treasury Secretary Bessent to “cut off all trade with Spain, including visits,” calling Madrid a “terrible partner” in NATO that “doesn’t participate, doesn’t pay.” Watch for Bessent to quietly walk that back — but it signals Trump’s mood at the summit is volatile. The Iran crisis is now the dominant variable at Ankara, not the Ukraine communique.
Bottom line: The MOU is functionally dead. Whether this escalates into renewed large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities — the open question CDM has been watching since Khamenei’s death — depends on what Iran does in the next 24 to 48 hours. The IRGC’s claim of hitting 85 US facilities is almost certainly inflated for domestic consumption. But any confirmed US casualties in Bahrain or Kuwait will dramatically narrow Trump’s political options.
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