Summary

• US reportedly struck 4 Iranian oil tankers attempting to traverse the Strait

• Qatari LNG Tanker entered the Strait for first time since start of war

• US continues to await a formal response from Tehran on a proposal aimed at ending the war

The odds of a permanent peace deal by the end of May have faded notably (now just 25%)…

US Reportedly Struck 4 Iranian Oil Tankers Entering The Strait

Multiple accounts across social media are reporting that four tankers were apparently struck or disabled by the U.S. forces near Iran’s Jask area. 

@EGYOSINT notes that satellite imagery shows one tanker on fire and extensive oil spills, including leaks from two tankers, with another spill detected about 7.4 kilometers from the anchorage site.

@Merrux confirmed that US forces hit an Iranian oil tanker near the port city of Bandar Jask last night.

The vessel is currently on fire. It remains unclear if other tankers were also hit, though smoke is rising from them. The tanker is visibly ablaze, there has been no response from Iran.

Presumably these are just more “love taps” and do not represent any threat to the so-called ‘ceasefire’.

Iran Keeps US Waiting On Formal Response To Peace Proposal

A state of relative calm prevailed around the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, after days of sporadic flareups, as the Trump administration continues to await a formal response from Tehran on a U.S. proposal aimed at ending the war and reopening the Hormuz chokepoint, following last week’s clashes between Iranian and U.S. naval forces in the world’s most critical waterway.

As Times of Israel reports, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that Washington expected a response within hours and President Donald Trump later said it would likely be submitted “tonight.”

But a day later, there was no sign of movement from Iran on the proposal, which would formally end the war before talks on more contentious issues, including the Iranian nuclear program.

With US President Donald Trump due to begin a long-awaited visit to China next week, there has been mounting pressure to draw a line under the conflict, which has thrown energy markets into turmoil and posed a growing threat to the world economy.

As Tehran kept Washington waiting for its response after saying Friday it was not paying attention to “deadlines,” the Islamic Republic’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called into question the reliability of the US leadership in a call with his Turkish counterpart.

“The recent escalation of tensions by American forces in the Persian Gulf and their numerous actions in violating the ceasefire have added to suspicions about the motivation and seriousness of the American side in the path of diplomacy,” he said, according to an Iranian account of the call published by the ISNA news agency.

While there were no official signs of a breakthrough in negotiations as of early Saturday morning, new ship data from the Hormuz area may suggest that positive developments are ahead. 

Qatari LNG Tanker Enters The Strait In First Since War

Bloomberg reporter Stephen Stapczynski wrote on X that an LNG tanker from Qatar is “attempting” to transit the Hormuz.

“If successful, this would be the first time Qatar has exported LNG out of the region since the Iran war began in late-Feb,” Stapczynski noted, adding, “The tanker says it is destined for Pakistan.”

BREAKING: Qatar is attempting to send an LNG shipment through the Strait of Hormuz 🇶🇦⚠️

If successful, this would be the first time Qatar has exported LNG out of the region since the Iran war began in late-Feb

The tanker says it is destined for Pakistan pic.twitter.com/JBHMq2RWpi

— Stephen Stapczynski (@SStapczynski) May 9, 2026

The tanker is fully loaded with LNG and is currently transiting the Hormuz chokepoint. We must point out that the ship did not sail through the Hormuz Island route. There is no word on whether Iran charged the vessel a transit fee, but Tehran allows ships from “friendly” nations, primarily China, India, and the UAE, to pass.

On Friday, UBS energy analyst Anna Kishmariya told clients that shipping flows through the Hormuz chokepoint remain very restricted and that the global oil market is getting tighter.

There is certainly urgency among the Trump administration and other nations to unfreeze Hormuz, as oil market insiders see a roughly one-month countdown to global energy chaos if the waterway remains blocked through this month.

Latest overnight headlines, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Ceasefire and Diplomatic Efforts

• The US is waiting for Iran’s response to Trump’s latest proposal to end the war, which suggests Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the US ends its blockade of Iranian ports over the next month

• Tehran’s response to the US proposal is “under review,” according to Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei

• Trump has changed his approach to prioritize reopening the Strait of Hormuz at all costs while leaving nuclear and ballistic missile negotiations for later

Recent Military Clashes

• The US struck Iranian military targets on Thursday after Iran fired multiple missiles, drones and small boats at three US Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz, with no US assets hit

• US forces targeted missile and drone launch sites and other military assets in Iran that were responsible for attacking the US warships

• The US “disabled” two unladen Iranian-flagged oil tankers, according to US officials

• Iran seized the tanker Ocean Koi in the Gulf of Oman, which appeared to be carrying Iranian oil

Hormuz

• The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping since Tuesday following the US-Iran clashes

• A Qatari LNG tanker, Al Kharaitiyat, is attempting to transit the strait, which would mark Qatar’s first export from the region since the war began

• Saudi Aramco and UAE’s Adnoc have managed to move some crude cargoes through the strait despite Iran’s effective closure of the waterway

Impacts

• The world has burned through oil inventories at record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf, eating into buffers that protect against supply shocks

• Chinese energy imports fell sharply in April, with crude cargoes dropping about 20% year-on-year to 38.47 million tons and gas falling about 13% to 8.42 million tons

• Global food prices climbed to their highest level in more than three years as the Iran war disrupted supply chains, with the UN food-commodity index gaining 1.6% in April

• Iran’s record internet blackout is taking a heavy toll on private businesses, with warnings it could lead to mass layoffs and closures

International Response

• The US imposed sanctions on three Chinese firms for providing satellite imagery to Iran, enabling its military strikes on American forces in the Middle East

• The UK will deploy HMS Dragon warship to the Middle East as part of planning for a European-led mission to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz once there’s a stable ceasefire

• Iran is ramping up trade with China via rail to bypass the US blockade, with cargo trains from Xi’an to Tehran increasing from one per week to one every three or four days