By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“This is quite a blue town,” said the CIO in DC. I had asked him about the post-election vibe. “Most of the city is kind of mourning, and a narrower group is euphoric.” We were discussing the profound change that has already begun to unfold post-election. The range of unorthodox and anti-establishment presidential appointments, the many possible consequences, economic, military, geopolitical. DOGE. “So, I worked in government for quite a few years,” he said. “And let me tell you, 30% of the people do 100% of the work.”

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“China is ready to work with the new US administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences, so as to strive for a steady transition of the China-US relationship for the benefit of the two peoples,” said Xi Jinping yesterday, meeting with Biden in Peru.

China’s stock market had fallen 1.2% priced in dollars since November 4th,the day before America’s election. The S&P 500 had gained 2.8% in that time. The Euro Stoxx 50 index was -4.3% when priced in dollars, the economic chasm widening, inexorably. The UK stock market and the MSCI Emerging index both fell 4%.

“If we treat each other as an adversary or an enemy, viciously compete with and harm each other, the Sino-US relations will encounter twists and turns or even regression,” warned Xi, his economy struggling, its real estate crisis and debt burden suffocating the kind of growth he needs to maintain social cohesion. And beneath it all, China’s inescapable demographic collapse ground onward, such things are mathematically impossible to reverse.

Xi had watched in a cold sweat as America’s president-elect announced his new team, China hawks, trade hawks, anti-establishment players, people committed to challenging orthodoxy in every area of government; appointments unlike anything seen in modern American history.

And the policy platform for the world’s largest economy appeared to be designed to fuel a domestic boom, which if achieved would put further distance between the US, China, Europe, in fact every serious nation. This increasingly evident contrast would spark further unrest amongst the citizens in these same nations whose leaders were failing them in so many ways.

“China’s goal of a stable, healthy and sustainable China-US relationship remains unchanged,” declared Xi, outwardly calm, statesmanlike, but inside praying that somehow, someway, this would be the time that America’s remarkable and chaotic propensity for producing prosperity, revolution within, reinvention, would finally fail.