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Border Security

bordersecurity400x400The protection of our homeland is the cornerstone of our policy. We believe in strong borders and immigration reform which provides a pathway to citizenship to those who arrive in our country legally. We advocate for a strong military which receives appropriate funding to recruit the best and the brightest to serve in our military branches including the Army, The Navy, The Airforce, and the newly minted Space Force. We adhere to a policy that honors and supports our retired veterans and their families. We support the fortification of our electronic borders through cyber security

In The News

2022 01 20 09 30 22 s3osuv

Lacy Hunt: Negative Real Rates Are A Strong Recession Warning

Lacy Hunt: Negative Real Rates Are A Strong Recession Warning Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, In his 4th Quarter Review and Outlook, Lacy provides some interesting charts on negative real rates and recessions. Please consider the Hoisington Management Quarterly Review and Outlook Fourth Quarter 2021. Emphasis Mine Real Treasury Bond Yields Real Treasury bond yields fell into deeply negative territory in 2021. In elementary economic models, this event, taken in isolation, would qualify as a plus for economic growth in 2022 and would be consistent with the strength indicated by fourth quarter 2021 tracking models. Lacy a different view however. His analysis shows that negative real yields are associated with recessions.  Debt overhang and demographics make the matter worse. History Since 1870, the starting point of reliable data, only 24 full yearly averages were negative, or just 16% of the 152 readings over this time span. Detailed parsing of the series reveals that 12 of those occurrences fell in the spans from 1914 to 1920 and 1939 to 1953, both of which were dominated by major military engagements and their subsequent demobilization – World Wars I and II and the Korean War. Excluding the 1914-20 and the 1939-53 periods from the post 1870 sample still leaves a robust sample of 130 readings. During this lengthy span, cyclical and secular economic conditions resulted in a negative yearly average for real Treasury bond yields twelve times, or just 8% of the time. In the eleven cases prior to 2021, nine of the negative real yield periods coincided with recessions – 1902-03, 1907, 1910, 1912, 1937, 1974-75, and 1980. Real long maturity yields were negative in 1934, which while not a recession year, happened during the horrific conditions of the Great Depression (1929-1939). In only one case, 1979, does the negative real yield happen during an

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