Ukraine’s Air Force Command says that Russia has, for the first time in the multi-year war, launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) targeting the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro. This unprecedented escalation follows Ukraine’s recent use of US-made MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and British Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets deep within Russia. The use of an ICBM is Russia demonstrating its greater capabilities in response to Ukraine’s long-range missile strikes.

A senior Ukrainian military official told the Financial Times that Russia launched an ICBM called “RS-26 Rubezh” that has a range of 3,700 miles and can strike any European capital.

Although RS-26 Rubezh can be used to deliver a thermonuclear warhead or an Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, Thursday morning’s attack on the Dnipro region was non-nuclear, instead some sort of conventional warhead. 

“Using these kinds of missiles, whether RS-26 or a true ICBM, in a conventional role does not make a lot of sense because of their relatively low accuracy and high cost,” Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, wrote on X.

“But this kind of a strike might have a value as a signal,” Podvig added.

And yes, it does.

Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told CNN that the ICBM strike on Ukraine is a “message” to Kyiv’s Western backers. He emphasized that this week’s escalations, including the Biden-Harris administration greenlighting Ukraine’s use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets in Russia, have likely prompted this escalation. 

Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for nuclear weapons use. He stated, “The use of Western non-nuclear rockets by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russia can prompt a nuclear response.” 

Davis continued, “Clearly, what the Russians have done here is to take the nuclear warheads off the missile and launch the missile either as an inert missile without anything on it or maybe with some sort of conventional warhead.” 

“They are trying to send a message. They’re trying to massively say to the West, ‘Look, the use of these Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles maybe is challenging Russia’s critical interests.’ And so they’re trying to intimidate us into backing down here,” he added. 

Videos posted on X show what could be warheads from the ICBM striking targets in Dnipro. 

BREAKING:

New video shows a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) striking Ukraine.

The video shows reentry vehicles from its MIRV hitting the city of Dnipro.

It’s the first time in history that an ICBM is used in war. pic.twitter.com/o198cJXvXm

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 21, 2024

BREAKING: Russia has launched a non-nuclear Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) against Ukraine, marking a first in history.

The missile hit the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

ICBMs can be equipped with nuclear warheads.

This is seen as a dire warning. pic.twitter.com/UqgJplbWzz

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) November 21, 2024

What’s clear is that the Biden-Harris administration knew exactly what they were doing by provoking Russia with the deployment of ATACMS and British missiles. US officials have since closed the US Embassy in Kyiv “out of an abundance of caution.”

In markets, Goldman’s Ece Kepekci commented on the situation: 

“Think particularly in Europe, there is a real geopolitical risk premia now as Ukraine/Russia following a series of escalations. Europe gave up its early rally yday on the back of further missile  attacks (early this morning “Ukraine says Russia Fired ICBM”). Off ramps not obvious but again this is not a new conflict and you’re supposed to fade geopolitical escalation. Sentiment has come down quite a bit “the bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was 8.1 vs 21.5 last week.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, “It’s a very dangerous position that the outgoing administration is taking,” adding, “There is a new escalation happening.”…

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