{"id":669502,"date":"2026-09-16T18:25:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T18:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=669502"},"modified":"2026-09-16T18:25:00","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T18:25:00","slug":"watch-live-fed-chair-warsh-explains-why-he-hiked-rates-into-stagflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=669502","title":{"rendered":"Watch Live: Fed Chair Warsh Explains Why He Hiked Rates Into Stagflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Watch Live: Fed Chair Warsh Explains Why He Hiked Rates Into Stagflation<\/span><\/p>\n

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The FOMC just (unanimously) hiked rates for the first time since July 2023<\/strong> despite recent inflation prints slowing…<\/p>\n

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Additionally, recent macro surprises <\/strong>are clearly signaling stagflation<\/strong> – the central banker’s nemesis…<\/p>\n

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So, a hike for credibility…<\/a> but\u00a0Warsh\u2019s biggest challenge will be communicating his outlook without reverting to forward guidance<\/strong>, even as markets seek clarity on whether today\u2019s likely move is one-and-done, or the start of a broader tightening cycle.<\/p>\n

With investors forced to extract more signal from his language, the press conference carries outsized front-end risk.<\/p>\n

In a note to clients, BMO notes two-year yields have moved an average 14bps across his five public appearances as chair so far<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The big question for today of course, assuming they do hike, is whether this is likely to be a \u201cone and done\u201d <\/strong><\/em>move.<\/p>\n

We haven\u2019t seen one of those this century so far.<\/p>\n

Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank catalogues that there were a few of those in the 1980s and 1990s.<\/p>\n

Outside of them, “the shortest cycle on record remains the four hikes of 1986-87.”<\/strong><\/p>\n

While all the talk is about the ‘unanimous’ decision today with the great majority of dots signaling at least one more hike this year… The Fed is extremely divided next year with four members see at least 2 rate-CUTS (policy error much)…<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Quick reminder:<\/em><\/p>\n