{"id":656855,"date":"2026-08-24T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-24T09:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=656855"},"modified":"2026-08-24T09:45:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T09:45:00","slug":"study-finds-152-polymarket-wallets-likely-exploited-military-secrets-for-8-million-in-gains-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=656855","title":{"rendered":"Study Finds 152 Polymarket Wallets Likely Exploited Military Secrets For $8 Million In Gains"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden\">Study Finds 152 Polymarket Wallets Likely Exploited Military Secrets For $8 Million In Gains<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item\">\n<p><strong>A new study has concluded that 152 Polymarket wallets may have profited from access to secret information about military action, with other wallets copying the insiders&#8217; bets.<\/strong> The patterns raise red flags about foreign adversaries&#8217; potential exploitation of insiders&#8217; profit-seeking to anticipate American strikes.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Released on Thursday by the\u00a0Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), <strong>the <a href=\"https:\/\/acdatacollective.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/ACDC-Classifying-Insider-Trading-Risk.pdf\">29-page report<\/a> focuses on a particular species in the diverse prediction market ecosystem &#8212; an &#8220;Orca,&#8221;<\/strong> which ACDC describes as a wallet that makes targeted, long-shot bets in a manner differs from the behavior of high-volume, high-frequency, multi-market &#8220;Whales.&#8221; Analysts also studied the corresponding behavior of &#8220;Bots,&#8221; which are wallets that seem at least partially automated.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/Army%20nervous.jpeg?itok=sxPLhZhX\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/Army%20nervous.jpeg?itok=sxPLhZhX\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"ea14257b-e554-4f0c-9226-5f6e31b5f9a1\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"335\" width=\"500\" class=\"inline-images image-style-inline-images\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/Army%20nervous.jpeg?itok=sxPLhZhX\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>To locate Orcas in the sea of data, ACDC looked at <strong>wallets that &#8220;place bets in a small number of markets and on very few topics, and have a high success rate (&gt; 75%) for longshot bets<\/strong> (defined as more than $2500 wagered at 35 cents or less).&#8221; The researchers found that, where military event markets were concerned, Orcas would bet first, with Whales and Bots following in their wakes. They noted that Orcas snared the biggest percentage returns, but Whales and Bots &#8212; putting down more money &#8212; would rake in the biggest actual profits.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A cohort of 152 Orcas betting on military actions <strong>won $8 million and posted\u00a0a sparkling 97.2% win rate <\/strong>on events where the market had the likelihood at 35% or less when the Orcas stepped up to wager.\u00a0 The report highlighted several Orca attributes that suggest they&#8217;re insiders:\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li><em>&#8220;More than <strong>half of Orcas made their first longshot bet within two days of creating an account <\/strong>on Polymarket, a possible sign they joined specifically to trade on privileged information.\u00a0<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Orcas wager more per longshot bet,<\/strong> despite the risks and low probabilities, and longshots dominate their total activity.\u00a0<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Orcas betting on military markets are <strong>less crypto-native<\/strong> and prefer cashing out into fiat currency.&#8221;<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The report includes a case study on an Orca that wagered on action against Iran. <strong>&#8220;0x88e6&#8221; placed its first longshot bet on the very day of America&#8217;s June airstrike on Iran&#8217;s Fordow nuclear complex<\/strong>. It made multiple bets that day, with the last one squeezed in just an hour before the bombs dropped. With some of the bets priced as low as 5 cents, 0x88e6 won more than $20,000 for the strike. It went on to win more than $13,000 on Fordow having been deemed successfully &#8220;destroyed.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/van%20dyke.jpeg?itok=ag9oQR0p\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/van%20dyke.jpeg?itok=ag9oQR0p\"><\/a><\/p>\n<figure role=\"group\" class=\"caption caption-img inline-images image-style-inline-images\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"02cce11d-2b0c-4028-93a5-e9949dc2b4e7\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"331\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/van%20dyke.jpeg?itok=ag9oQR0p\" width=\"500\" \/><figcaption><strong>Special Forces MSGT Gannon Van Dyke was arrested after winning $400,000 betting on the operation to seize Venezuela&#8217;s president <\/strong>(via <em>Business Insider<\/em>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>ACDC&#8217;s analysts observed Whales and Bots swooping in with heftier capital to mimic Orca bets:\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><em>When an Orca bet on U.S.\u00a0military action\u00a0in Iran hours before the June \u200b2025 strikes&#8230;<strong>a Bot and a \u200bWhale made copycat wagers of $200,000 and $100,000, respectively. <\/strong>\u2060Similar Orca bets before February U.S.-Israeli air strikes on Tehran also appeared to spark a flurry of first-time long-shot bets by Bots and Whales wagering on the same outcome, the research found. &#8212; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/finance\/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research-finds-2026-08-20\/\">Reuters<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;Most people vastly underestimate how observable unusual betting activity actually is on Polymarket. It&#8217;s all right \u200bthere on the internet, and we can see clear signs that big traders and bots are copying potential insider trades,&#8221; ACDC co-founder \u200bDavid Szakonyi told <em>Reuters<\/em>. <strong>&#8220;It would be \u2060naive to think foreign-intelligence agencies aren&#8217;t monitoring these markets.&#8221;\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\" xml:lang=\"en\">\u201cWe spotted nine Polymarket accounts, all connected, who made, collectively,$2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations,\u201d says Nicolas Vaiman, co-founder of the small data analytics firm Bubblemaps.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd now here&#8217;s the crazy part: 98% win rate.\u201d\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XXietAHjvv\">pic.twitter.com\/XXietAHjvv<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/60Minutes\/status\/2071369301693485472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 28, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>In April, US Army Special Forces <strong>Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was arrested for allegedly making more than $400,000<\/strong> by placing Polymarket <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/political\/us-special-forces-soldier-arrested-400k-maduro-raid-insider-bet\">bets<\/a> on the timing of a US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of that very operation. The federal government charged him with\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/unlawful%20use%20of%20confidential%20government%20information%20for%20personal%20gain,%20theft%20of%20nonpublic%20government%20information,%20commodities%20fraud,%20wire%20fraud,%20and%20making%20an%20unlawful%20monetary%20transaction\">unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain<\/a>, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction.\u00a0In February, <strong>the Israeli government <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/two-israelis-arrested-indicted-using-classified-iran-info-polymarket-bets\">arrested<\/a> and indicted an IDF\u00a0military reservist and a civilian<\/strong> with\u00a0classified clearances who placed Polymarket bets regarding military operations, with one of the bets covering the timing of Israel&#8217;s first strike on Iran in June 2025.<\/p>\n<p>While warning about national security and &#8220;political integrity&#8221; risks, <strong>ACDC lauded Polymarket&#8217;s public blockchain architecture:<\/strong> &#8220;The same data transparency that allows Whales and Bots to legally capitalize on the information advantage of others allows researchers and journalists to uncover potential insider trading.&#8221; At the same time ACDC noted the difficulty of identifying the insiders, and argued for <strong>&#8220;outright bans on\u00a0the types of markets most vulnerable&#8221;<\/strong> to their exploitation. The group is also pushing for <strong>identification verification<\/strong> for all users, and <strong>delaying payouts<\/strong> for high-risk bets while the transaction is scrutinized.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>      <span class=\"field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden\"><a title=\"View user profile.\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/users\/tyler-durden\" lang=\"\" class=\"username\" xml:lang=\"\">Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden\">Mon, 08\/24\/2026 &#8211; 05:45<\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/Army%20nervous.jpeg?itok=sxPLhZhX\" title=\"Study Finds 152 Polymarket Wallets Likely Exploited Military Secrets For $8 Million In Gains\" \/><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Study Finds 152 Polymarket Wallets Likely Exploited Military Secrets For $8 Million In Gains A new study has concluded that 152 Polymarket wallets may have profited from access to secret information about military action, with other wallets copying the insiders&#8217; bets. The patterns raise red flags about foreign adversaries&#8217; potential exploitation of insiders&#8217; profit-seeking to&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=656855\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Study Finds 152 Polymarket Wallets Likely Exploited Military Secrets For $8 Million In Gains<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":656840,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[20,23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-656855","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-empowerment","category-national-security","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/656855","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=656855"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/656855\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/656840"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=656855"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=656855"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=656855"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}