{"id":622755,"date":"2026-06-21T20:55:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-21T20:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=622755"},"modified":"2026-06-21T20:55:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-21T20:55:00","slug":"the-market-is-carrying-more-length-more-leverage-goldman-flows-guru-warns-expect-more-volatilit-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=622755","title":{"rendered":"The Market Is Carrying More Length & More Leverage: Goldman Flows Guru Warns… Expect More Volatilit"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Market Is Carrying More Length & More Leverage: Goldman Flows Guru Warns… Expect More Volatilit<\/span><\/p>\n

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The biggest discussion<\/strong> that top Goldman Sachs trader (and flows guru), Lee Coppersmith, had with clients this week wasn\u2019t whether AI is over – it wasn\u2019t.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The debate has shifted to how investors should own it from here.<\/p>\n

If anything, the secular backdrop across both the US and Asia continues to strengthen. <\/strong>Capex expectations remain robust, earnings revisions continue to move higher, and we saw another week of significant inflows into US technology<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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Prime Brokerage data tells the same story<\/strong> – Semis are on pace to finish as the most net bought global subsector for a second straight year, with net allocations now at record highs.<\/p>\n

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What\u2019s changing isn\u2019t the fundamental story – it\u2019s the market structure. <\/strong>leverage continues to build, and volatility across large-cap Tech continues to expand relative to the broader market even as prices move higher.<\/p>\n

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At the same time, global HF net leverage has climbed to 4-year highs and this is one of the sharpest increases over a 4-week period in the past 5 years<\/strong>, driven by significant net buying activity and mark-to-market \u2026 Here\u2019s our full PB rundown<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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We\u2019re also seeing some signs of broadening despite a pickup in that debate at the end of the week. <\/strong>Flows have expanded into Financials, cyclicals and parts of Europe and Asia, but not at the expense of AI. In fact, while overall US Tech exposure has risen toward 5-year highs, Mag 7 gross and net exposure has fallen to 1-year lows as investors rotate deeper into the AI ecosystem – particularly Semis and Asian chipmakers – rather than simply adding more mega-cap exposure.<\/p>\n

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The other major takeaway from June is that macro is back.<\/strong> The Iran deal serves to remove one inflation risk and Brent gave back much of its geopolitical premium, only for the Fed to replace it with renewed policy uncertainty. Front-end rates repriced higher following a hawkish FOMC, and markets should now recalibrate event volatility premium more carefully (see NFP day and FOMC day as prime examples).<\/p>\n

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One interesting observation has been how quickly investors have faded geopolitical risk<\/strong>. Brent has retraced most of its war premium, Managed Money has sold nearly $25bn of crude over the past seven weeks, outright shorts have reached new highs after a record build this past week, and net length now sits below pre-war levels (h\/t Rob Quinn). Investors have been remarkably quick to close the book on oil and shift their attention back toward rates and Fed policy.<\/p>\n

Brent Managed Money Shorts \u2013 weekly change<\/em><\/p>\n

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Finally, systematic flows remain an important amplifier.<\/strong> Dealer gamma from leveraged ETFs – particularly in markets like Korea – continues to reinforce both upside momentum and downside moves, adding another source of volatility beneath the surface. One stat that stood out to me: leveraged ETF dealer gamma rebalancing can exceed 20% of Korea’s market ADV on large-move days<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n

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Our takeaway hasn\u2019t changed – AI remains the highest-conviction secular story we hear from clients and continues to attract capital globally. <\/strong><\/p>\n

But June has been a reminder that even the strongest secular themes don\u2019t trade in a vacuum.<\/p>\n

The market is carrying more length, more leverage and, as a result, more volatility.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Professional subscribers<\/a> can read all the links above from Goldman’s Sales & Trading team here at our new <\/em>Marketdesk.ai<\/em><\/a> portal<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nSun, 06\/21\/2026 – 16:55<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Market Is Carrying More Length & More Leverage: Goldman Flows Guru Warns… Expect More Volatilit The biggest discussion that top Goldman Sachs trader (and flows guru), Lee Coppersmith, had with clients this week wasn\u2019t whether AI is over – it wasn\u2019t. The debate has shifted to how investors should own it from here. If… Continue reading The Market Is Carrying More Length & More Leverage: Goldman Flows Guru Warns… Expect More Volatilit<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":622749,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[17,22,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-622755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-border-security","category-immigration","category-immigration-reform","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=622755"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622755\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/622749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=622755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=622755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=622755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}