{"id":604166,"date":"2026-05-19T13:59:35","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T13:59:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=604166"},"modified":"2026-05-19T13:59:35","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T13:59:35","slug":"florida-democrats-see-a-poll-bump-but-republicans-say-the-map-still-runs-through-trump-country-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=604166","title":{"rendered":"Florida Democrats see a poll bump, but Republicans say the map still runs through Trump country"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/div>\n

A new poll shows some Florida Democrats, including the execrable Alexander Vindman, now leading over their GOP opponents.<\/p>\n

Conducted by Change Research, the poll shows Democrat gubernatorial candidate David Jolly beating GOP candidate Byron Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent.<\/p>\n

The poll likewise shows Vindman, a candidate for Senate, defeating GOP candidate Ashley Moody 47 percent to 45 percent.<\/p>\n

\n

FLORIDA POLL<\/p>\n

Governor
\n\"\ud83d\udfe6\" David Jolly: 46%
\n\"\ud83d\udfe5\" Byron Donalds: 42%
\n\u2014
\nSenate
\n\"\ud83d\udfe6\" Alex Vindman: 47%
\n\"\ud83d\udfe5\" Ashley Moody: 45%@ChangePolls<\/a> | 5\/13-16 | 1,593 LVhttps:\/\/t.co\/cwU3WssTB2<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/BqX9x9U0if<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 18, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The poll goes against the grain, in that most polls show Donalds and Moody easily trouncing their Democrat opponents.<\/p>\n

Yet in a statement to Mediaite<\/a>, veteran Democrat consultant Steve Schale, who served as former President Barack Obama\u2019s 2008 Florida campaign manager, swore that Change Research is a \u201clegitimate Democratic pollster.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI have confidence in their work,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019ve used them.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, he did admit that the poll was conducted via online surveys, which he said \u201ccan skew\u201d to include more respondents who are so-called \u201ccollege educated,\u201d which typically means liberal.<\/p>\n

Critics on social media, meanwhile, laughed \u2014 perhaps arrogantly \u2014 at the notion of Democrats winning at all in such a deeply red state:<\/p>\n

\n

Dems can\u2019t win in Florida, the elections are too secure.<\/p>\n

\u2014 Joe Andrews (@KeepRepublicBlg) May 18, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n

Why does every legitimate poll show Donalds and Moody leading?<\/p>\n

\u2014 Leonard Doland (@LenDoland) May 18, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n

Silly considering registered republicans outnumber democrats by 2 million here \"\ud83e\udd23\"<\/p>\n

\u2014 JDinFlorida \"\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8\" (@JDBetsFL) May 18, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n

There are over 1.5 million more Republicans in Florida than there are Democrats. That is next to impossible to overcome, but do continue to waste campaign money on Democrats in Florida. \"\ud83d\ude02\"<\/p>\n

\u2014 @Praetorian6Actual (@toujourspr72128) May 18, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n

Nobody believes this, I have friends who were Democrats and they have no idea who Vinman is. We were talking about upcoming elections over the weekend and they\u2019re totally confused and have no idea who these candidates are.<\/p>\n

\u2014 Marcos (@Tbam1977) May 18, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Regarding Florida\u2019s gubernatorial race, the Change Research poll found that Jolly is leading because of Independents, who are identified as No Party Affiliation (NPA).<\/p>\n

\u201cJolly is consolidating Democrats and leads the all-important Florida NPA by 18 points (46% to 28%) with apparent room to grow,\u201d the poll results<\/a> read.<\/p>\n

\u201cByron Donalds lags Donald Trump\u2019s performance with Hispanics by 10 points, with only 30% of Puerto Ricans and 50% of Cubans currently supporting him,\u201d the results continue.<\/p>\n

As for the Senate race, Vindman\u2019s team sent a statement to Mediaite celebrating how Change Research\u2019s polling is \u201cunderscoring growing momentum\u201d behind his campaign.<\/p>\n

Jolly\u2019s campaign issued a similar statement saying the Change Research poll is \u201cthe most recent example of Jolly\u2019s upward momentum\u201d that they claim is being \u201cdriven by [the] affordability crisis and Democratic enthusiasm.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Florida is ready for something better.<\/p>\n

A new Change Research poll shows us leading Byron Donalds in the race for governor. It\u2019s clear Floridians are responding to a message focused on lowering costs, protecting freedoms, restoring decency, and delivering real results.<\/p>\n

This is\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/au2p8Ptzdc<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 David Jolly (@davidjollyfl) May 18, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Shale, for his part, said that he still thinks Florida is an uphill battle for Democrats, though he noted that the poll makes it clear a win isn\u2019t impossible.<\/p>\n

\u201cI heard Ryan Tyson say recently, it\u2019s not probable, but it\u2019s possible for Democrats to win Florida,\u201d Schale told Mediaite, referring to a polling expert and political consultant who previously advised the campaigns of Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m very much a realist,\u201d he continued, adding that he believes the upcoming midterm election \u201cfeels a lot more like 2020 than 2024\u201d and is therefore going to be \u201ca lot more competitive.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Change Research poll also contained some bad news for Republicans on the national level. For instance, it found that President Trump boasts a favorable rating of only 44 percent compared to an unfavorable rating of 52 percent.<\/p>\n

\u201cVoters were unhappy with both the direction of the country (69% not satisfied) and their state (55% not satisfied), and again those numbers were worse among independents (79% not satisfied with direction of the U.S., 64% not satisfied with direction of Florida),\u201d according to Mediaite.<\/p>\n

\u201cA key part of that was the cost of living, with strong majorities expressing stress about paying for gasoline (81%), food and groceries (80%), health care (73%), homeowners\u2019 insurance (73%), and utility costs (73%),\u201d the reporting continued.<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new poll shows some Florida Democrats, including the execrable Alexander Vindman, now leading over their GOP opponents. Conducted by Change Research, the poll shows Democrat gubernatorial candidate David Jolly beating GOP candidate Byron Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent. The poll likewise shows Vindman, a candidate for Senate, defeating GOP candidate Ashley Moody 47… Continue reading Florida Democrats see a poll bump, but Republicans say the map still runs through Trump country<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":604155,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[20,23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-604166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-empowerment","category-national-security","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604166","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=604166"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604166\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/604155"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=604166"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=604166"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=604166"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}