{"id":604125,"date":"2026-05-19T13:05:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T13:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=604125"},"modified":"2026-05-19T13:05:00","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T13:05:00","slug":"striking-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=604125","title":{"rendered":"Striking"},"content":{"rendered":"

Striking<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank<\/em><\/p>\n

Striking<\/h3>\n

Trump said that he had delayed a planned military strike <\/strong><\/u><\/em>on Tuesday, at the request of Qatar, Saudia Arabia, and the UAE. According to Trump, the leaders of the Gulf states had asked the US to call off the attack because \u201cserious negotiations are now taking place,\u201d which could lead to a deal that is acceptable to the US and its Middle Eastern allies. <\/strong><\/p>\n

In earlier stages of the conflict, such news would probably have caused a rally in stocks. But it seems that buyers may be on strike<\/strong><\/u><\/em>, or are at least fatigued. The S&P 500 briefly jumped from its intraday low, but this was insufficient to end the day in the green. Asian equity markets are trading relatively close to home today, too.<\/p>\n

Perhaps that\u2019s because, as much as Trump claims that \u201cserious negotiations\u201d are currently ongoing, yesterday\u2019s news flow suggests that the key sticking points remain unresolved. So, this is either a genuine last attempt to get to a peace deal that the Gulf states may prefer over the damage from war, or it is another flip-flop after Washington rejected an Iranian draft plan that was made over the weekend.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Iran may have since made a new proposal. Newspaper Al Arabiya reported that Iran could agree to a long-term pause of its nuclear program<\/strong>. And instead of demanding war reparations, Iran now reportedly asks for economic concessions. Even if these reports are true, a long-term pause is not the same as completely dismantling the nuclear program \u2013 will that be sufficient for the US?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The New York Post suggests it is not. In a phone interview, President Trump told the paper that he\u2019s \u201cnot open to anything right now,\u201d adding that \u201cthey want to make a deal more than ever because they know we\u2019re \u2013 what\u2019s going to be happening soon.\u201d However, separately, Trump has also said that he could agree to an Iranian commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons \u2013 if the Gulf states are content with that.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Whether it\u2019s a genuine attempt or not, it will probably encourage Iranian hardliners, making a resumption of the conflict more likely<\/strong>. Tehran still seems to be digging in. Iranian media reported that fundamental differences between the two sides remain. Despite amendments, Iran still views the US\u2019 demands as \u201cexcessive and unrealistic.\u201d<\/p>\n

So, a darker scenario of a return to bombing campaigns may be averted \u2013 for now<\/strong>. And lack of escalation or resolution of the conflict means that financial markets continue to wait for new direction \u2013 sending oil prices sharply higher or lower, depending on whether the outlook improves or suddenly deteriorates. Meanwhile, the US Treasury has extended the sanctions waiver on Russian crude until June 17, after the previous waiver expired a few days ago \u2013 to contain price spikes where possible.<\/strong><\/p>\n

However, as we noted yesterday, a grinding stalemate would be bad enough for global energy stocks, and economic outlooks. <\/strong>The International Energy Agency warned that stockpiles are \u201cdepleting very fast.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not yet the case everywhere. European refiners and airlines are backtracking on their earlier warnings that kerosine could run out over the summer. They now have \u201calmost zero\u201d concerns<\/a> that jet fuel could run out over summer. Refiners have increased production, and higher imports from the US, Nigeria and Norway have also helped to stabilize supply. It\u2019s the price mechanism at work: jet fuel prices surged in April and are currently around 60% above pre-war levels.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

CHART OF THE DAY: The global jet fuel market is small, accounting for
\nAnd refiners are on “max” jet fuel mode \ud83d\udcc8\u2935\ufe0f.<\/p>\n

Link on reply pic.twitter.com\/R9zugMljlJ<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) May 18, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Higher prices may incentivize redirection of supplies to areas that can afford them, but those countries that cannot are starting to face supply constraints<\/strong>. Several Asian countries have already been grappling with shortages, and the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has thrown Cuba in a full-blown energy crisis.<\/p>\n

On top of the energy crisis, US intelligence is putting further pressure on Havana to strike <\/strong><\/u><\/em>a deal with the US. A US intelligence report claims that Cuba has acquired 300 drones that are capable of striking US bases at Guantanamo Bay, military vessels, and possibly even Florida<\/strong> \u2013 adding that Cuba has started to discuss plans<\/a> to use them. Raising the tensions between both nations, the US has sanctioned 11 Cuban officials, \u201cto address the pressing national security threats<\/a> posed by Cuba\u2019s communist regime.\u201d<\/p>\n

Havana, in turn, is concerned that the report would be used as pretext for a military operation against it. President Trump has threatened Cuban leaders with a fate similar to Venezuela\u2019s Maduro earlier this year. The US National Security Strategy \u2013and recent military interventions\u2013 suggests that the White House is willing to strike<\/strong><\/u><\/em>, if it means that Washington can install a more US-friendly government.<\/p>\n

Indeed, developments since the start of the year indicate that the Trump administration continues to seek more control over its hemisphere. The world may have forgotten about Greenland for a bit, but Trump reportedly has not.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Talks about US-Greenland relations have been ongoing for the past couple of months. A week ago, there seemed to be some progress defusing tensions \u2013 with the US and Denmark reportedly agreeing to three new military bases, which would be formally designated as US sovereign territory. However, the New York Times now reports that Washington still seeks greater influence<\/a> and control over Greenland.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nTue, 05\/19\/2026 – 09:05<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Striking By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank Striking Trump said that he had delayed a planned military strike on Tuesday, at the request of Qatar, Saudia Arabia, and the UAE. According to Trump, the leaders of the Gulf states had asked the US to call off the attack because \u201cserious negotiations are… Continue reading Striking<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[18,19,10,21,12,11,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-604125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cancel-culture","category-censorship","category-civil-liberties","category-election-integrity","category-equal-justice","category-free-speech","category-religious-freedom","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604125","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=604125"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604125\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=604125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=604125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=604125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}