{"id":592019,"date":"2026-04-27T12:34:23","date_gmt":"2026-04-27T12:34:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=592019"},"modified":"2026-04-27T12:34:23","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T12:34:23","slug":"futures-flat-at-all-time-highs-ahead-of-huge-week-semis-set-for-19th-day-of-gains-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=592019","title":{"rendered":"Futures Flat At All Time Highs Ahead Of Huge Week, Semis Set For 19th Day Of Gains"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden\">Futures Flat At All Time Highs Ahead Of Huge Week, Semis Set For 19th Day Of Gains<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item\">\n<p>Risk sentiment improved overnight on another <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/04\/27\/iran-us-hormuz-strait-nuclear-talks-proposal-pakistan\">Axios <\/a>report that Iran has given the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz\u00a0with more detailed nuclear talks expected later. Oil pares early gains, and US equity futures jumped although they have also pared gains since and are trading flat as traders await a\u00a0huge week\u00a0of earnings (<strong>44% of the S&amp;P by mkt cap is set to report<\/strong>) and\u00a0central bank decisions (<strong>Fed, BOJ, ECB, BOE and BOC all expected to keep rates on hold<\/strong>). As of 8:00am ET,\u00a0S&amp;P 500 futures are flat and Nasdaq 100 contracts gain 0.2% after Friday&#8217;s records for both indexes even though leadership is narrow, and the S&amp;P equal weight index closed negative on the week; <strong>premarket gains by chip stocks like Nvidia, Qualcomm, Intel and Micron suggest the semiconductor ETF (SOX) is set for a record 19th day of gains. <\/strong>Mag7s are mixed, semis are bid, discretionary outperforms staples, cyclicals over defensives, and AI theme is bid across multiple sectors. Looming\u00a0Big Tech results (<em>22% of S&amp;P 500 market cap across just four companies reports after the close on Wednesday, when Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta release their Q1 results with Apple following on Thursday<\/em>) will\u00a0test\u00a0whether April\u2019s rally is sustainable, with signs of caution under the surface of the gains. \u00a0Bond yields are +1-2bps as the yield curve steepens; DXY is lower. Commodities are bid led by the Energy complex, with most products up at least 2%. Brent crude rose 1.1% to about $106.50 a barrel after Trump canceled a trip by top envoys to mediators in Pakistan over the weekend.\u00a0Base metals are leading Precious with Ags continuing its march higher. Today\u2019s macro data calendar is light ahead of a heavy central bank schedule where major CBs are expected to hold ahead of the market pricing changes in June. Warsh is set to be confirmed without further delays while Powell\u2019s status remains unclear.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/ES%202026-04-27_8-04-08.jpg?itok=2o_4NDhR\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/ES%202026-04-27_8-04-08.jpg?itok=2o_4NDhR\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"83bc65d6-bb0f-4c77-92ea-3d14291ce562\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"278\" width=\"500\" class=\"inline-images image-style-inline-images\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/ES%202026-04-27_8-04-08.jpg?itok=2o_4NDhR\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Nvidia +1.6%, Alphabet +0.4%, Amazon -0.1%, Meta +0.04%, Microsoft -0.4%, Tesla -0.4%, Apple -1.8%)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Domino\u2019s Pizza (DPZ) falls 3% after the company reported revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.<\/li>\n<li>GE Vernova (GEV) is down 1.6% after BNP Paribas downgraded the power equipment company to neutral, predicting it would find it harder to sustain growth momentum, given that 90% of gas turbine capacity is already contracted through 2030.<\/li>\n<li>Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) rises 1.6% after saying its gene-editing treatment for a rare swelling disorder met its goal in a late-stage trial, paving the way for the potential first approval of a new way of modifying DNA.<\/li>\n<li>Organon &amp; Co. (OGN) gains 16% as Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. has lined up a short-term loan to help finance its $12 billion acquisition of the New York-listed healthcare company, according to people familiar with the transaction.<\/li>\n<li>Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA) climbs 15% after announcing positive topline results from a Phase 3 clinical trial of lonvo-z in hereditary angioedema.<\/li>\n<li>Qualcomm (QCOM) jumps 13% after TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said industry checks suggest OpenAI is working with the chipmaker and Taiwan\u2019s MediaTek to develop smartphone processors.<\/li>\n<li>VeraDermics (MANE) climbs 15% after saying its oral extended-release minoxidil formulation VDPHL01 met all primary and key secondary endpoints with high statistical significance in a Phase 2\/3 clinical trial for male pattern hair loss.<\/li>\n<li>Verizon (VZ) gains 3% after the company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.<\/li>\n<li>XOMA Royalty Corp. (XOMA) shares are halted after Ligand Pharmaceuticals agreed to buy the company for $39 per share of common stock in cash<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In other corporate news, Musk says he\u2019s\u00a0nearing his goal\u00a0of turning X into an \u201ceverything app\u201d with a new financial services tool called X Money, which is expected to launch for the public this month. China has decided to\u00a0block\u00a0Meta\u2019s $2 billion acquisition of agentic AI startup Manus, making a surprise move to unwind a controversial deal.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0S&amp;P 500\u00a0is up nearly 10% this month following an unprecedented but <strong>increasingly narrow <\/strong>rally thanks to chipmakers\u00a0and robust earnings, <strong>helping the benchmark recoup all losses after the war in the Middle East upended energy flows<\/strong>. Chip stocks are set for further gains on Monday, with names such as Qualcomm Inc., Intel Corp. and Micron Technology Inc. rising in premarket trading.\u00a0Nasdaq 100\u00a0futures climbed 0.2%.<\/p>\n<p>While Friday witnessed new records for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100, hegde funds are selling tech stocks, leadership is extremely narrow, and the S&amp;P equal weight index closed negative on the week<\/p>\n<p><a data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/bad%20breadth_2.jpg?itok=QxPGkI-Y\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/bad%20breadth_2.jpg?itok=QxPGkI-Y\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"ad61484d-47ba-4f6c-a18f-a95f20e92a3e\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"279\" width=\"500\" class=\"inline-images image-style-inline-images\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/bad%20breadth_2.jpg?itok=QxPGkI-Y\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Systematic strategies have bought stocks aggressively, but some investors have less conviction. Hedge funds are using the US equity rally to reduce risks, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/goldman-desk-braces-market-pullback-five-warning-signs-are-flashing\">traders on Goldman&#8217;s prime brokerage desk, <\/a>who point out significant degrossing and selling to tech stocks.<\/p>\n<p><a data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/prime%20book%20net%20selling.jpg?itok=iLgK_N_i\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/prime%20book%20net%20selling.jpg?itok=iLgK_N_i\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"ca86e28a-6f1c-4d40-8835-8b415783d27d\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"300\" width=\"500\" class=\"inline-images image-style-inline-images\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/prime%20book%20net%20selling.jpg?itok=iLgK_N_i\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Some Wall Street strategists say it may be a good time to\u00a0buy insurance\u00a0via options, such as pure stock hedges or broader protection against higher interest rates. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, meanwhile, expects any potential pullbacks to be\u00a0shallow\u00a0given passive investors are still under-risked.<\/p>\n<p>The signs of caution come as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a\u00a0near-complete halt, pushing WTI back above $96. Goldman Sachs analysts lifted their oil-price\u00a0forecasts\u00a0again, saying that an estimated 14.5 million barrels a day of Persian Gulf crude production losses are driving global oil inventories to draw at a record pace.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEven if we do get a deal, oil is not going back to pre-war levels,\u201d wrote Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies. \u201cWe need to factor in some degree of stagflationary impact. The US should be the least impacted, South Asia the most impacted, while Europe should be somewhere in between.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Yet markets remain largely unfazed by continued oil price increases; for them the AI narrative takes precedence. Traders continue to chase the theme through the semiconductor complex, pushing the SOX Index to its most overbought level in 15 years. <strong>The SOX has also completely dislocated from the ISM Manufacturing reading. That gap historically tends to close one way or another.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s an extremely busy weeks for earnings with <strong>over 42% of the S&amp;P set to report Q1 results<\/strong>.\u00a0\u00a0Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Meta and Apple make this a\u00a0make-or-break week\u00a0for the rally. The companies are worth nearly $16 trillion combined, <strong>representing a quarter of the S&amp;P 500\u2019s market capitalization<\/strong>. Expanding profits have helped keep a lid on valuations, with the Mag-7 ex-Tesla trading at a P\/E of 25x, down from 29x in October.\u00a022% of S&amp;P 500 market capitalisation, across just four companies, reports after the close on Wednesday, when Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta release their Q1 results. Apple follows on Thursday.<\/p>\n<p><a data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/S%26P%20reporting%20this%20week_0.jpg?itok=tBH6KrPb\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/S%26P%20reporting%20this%20week_0.jpg?itok=tBH6KrPb\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"3fd982dd-d540-46eb-8302-093dbcf22ac0\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"292\" width=\"500\" class=\"inline-images image-style-inline-images\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/S%26P%20reporting%20this%20week_0.jpg?itok=tBH6KrPb\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Of the 139 S&amp;P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, 80% have beaten analysts\u2019 forecasts, while 14% have missed.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>We also get a bonanza of central bank announcements (Fed, BOJ, ECB, BOE, BOC) this week.\u00a0Policymakers in the US and across the G7 will probably keep rates steady this week while watching the impact of higher energy costs. Wednesday will see the Federal Reserve deliver its latest interest-rate decision, with central bank officials across the Group of Seven also meeting\u00a0during the week\u00a0as investors eye how policymakers confront the risk of a war-driven inflation shock.\u00a0As for Wednesday\u2019s Fed policy meeting, any meaningful change in guidance will likely be deferred until June, wrote\u00a0Jim Reid, head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank AG.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat said, there is a tangible risk that communication skews modestly hawkish,\u201d Reid said. \u201cAn explicit acknowledgment that risks to price stability and employment are now more evenly balanced would likely be interpreted as a marginally less accommodative stance.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In another keenly anticipated event this week, a Senate Banking Committee vote on Kevin Warsh\u2019s nomination as chair of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for Wednesday. Warsh is expected to be swiftly confirmed as Jerome Powell\u2019s successor, whose term ends on May 15, after Republican Senator <strong>Thom Tillis said he\u2019s dropping his blockade of the nomination\u00a0<\/strong>he said in an NBC interview. The DOJ\u2019s decision to drop a criminal probe into the Fed may clear a path for Trump\u2019s nominee to take over, but it won\u2019t secure the current Fed chair\u2019s\u00a0departure.\u00a0At his confirmation hearing last week, Warsh called for a \u201cregime change\u201d in the way the Fed conducts policy. Money markets are currently leaning against any Fed rate cut in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMarkets are looking for a new narrative and are jumping back to the AI boom for now,\u201d said\u00a0Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum. \u201cHowever, most investors seem to be guided by uncertainty and are still assessing the fallout from the Iran war. This could mean that a new macro story will emerge soon.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In politics, Trump is using the Saturday night shooting at the White House Correspondents\u2019 Dinner to add a\u00a0security rationale\u00a0to his case for building a massive White House ballroom. Budget airlines are asking the White House for a\u00a0relief plan\u00a0worth $2.5 billion in exchange for convertible equity stakes in the carriers.<\/p>\n<p>European stocks rise, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.3% after erasing an earlier fall. Energy, industrial and bank names are leading gains.Energy and retail sectors outperform. Sainsbury falls after a double-downgrade from Goldman.\u00a0Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Nordex surges as\u00a0much as 15% after the renewable-energy equipment firm beat expectations in the first quarter of the year.<\/li>\n<li>Commerzbank\u00a0rises as much as 2.2% as Bank of America upgrades its shares to buy, saying they look attractive whether the bank is bought by Unicredit or not.<\/li>\n<li>Whitbread shares\u00a0gain as much as 3.6% after a report from the Times over the weekend said the company plans sell a swathe of Premier Inn hotels to unlock \u00a31.5 billion.<\/li>\n<li>Kingfisher shares rise\u00a0as much as 1.1% after the DIY retailer was upgraded at Barclays following its recent underperformance against European peers.<\/li>\n<li>Orsted shares rise\u00a0as much as 3.9% as Goldman Sachs upgrades its rating on the offshore energy company to buy from neutral.<\/li>\n<li>Entain shares fall\u00a0as much as 7.1% in heavy trading volume after news that one of the gaming company\u2019s major shareholders, Eminence Capital, is being shuttered.<\/li>\n<li>Sainsbury drops as\u00a0much as 4.8% as Goldman double-downgrades to sell on macro headwinds, and Citi lowers its rating on the UK supermarket chain to neutral on weaker than expected Ebit guidance for 2027.<\/li>\n<li>Nexi shares fall as\u00a0much as 3% after Bank of America downgrades the Italian payments processor to underperform from neutral, citing unjustified recent outperformance amid ongoing growth headwinds from bank contract losses and risks to 2028 targets.<\/li>\n<li>Intertek shares drop\u00a0as much as 3.9% after the testing and certification firm said after markets closed on Friday that it rejected the 5,400 pence per share bid from EQT, stating it \u201cfundamentally undervalues\u201d the company and its prospects.<\/li>\n<li>Seraphim Space\u00a0Investment Trust shares fall as much as 16% in London trading after it announced plans to raise funds by issuing shares.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Asian equities also push higher, with Taiex and Kospi leading winners as chipmakers rally. Hong Kong and mainland China indexes are regional laggards.\u00a0The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.7%, the most since April 14. Taiwan\u2019s Taiex index was among best performers in the region, led by a surge in TSMC to a record. Markets in Vietnam and New Zealand were closed for holidays.\u00a0Asian companies are also\u00a0heading\u00a0into the busiest week of the earnings season, offering investors a glimpse of how the Iran war has impacted business.\u00a0In Japan, investors are keeping an eye on the Bank of Japan\u2019s interest rate decision on Tuesday. The BOJ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cInvestors are paying attention to the Asia tech sector, especially with a large amount of suppliers here,\u201d Jasmine Duan, Asia senior investment strategist at RBC Wealth Management, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. Despite risks of overbuying in big tech names such as TSMC, \u201cthe earnings growth will digest the concern on this overcrowded trade.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In FX,\u00a0the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2%. The Norwegian krone is leading gains against the greenback, rising 0.6%. The Aussie and kiwi dollars also outperform.\u00a0\u00a0The yen hovers around 159.20\/USD and euro holds near 1.1730. Offshore yuan gets a boost from solid PBOC fixing.<\/p>\n<p>In rates, treasuries trade slightly cheaper in early US trading, off session lows reached following slight gap lower at start of Asia session.\u00a0\u00a0Treasury yields cheaper by as much as 1.5bp at long end with curve slightly steeper on the day, keeping spreads within 1bp of Friday\u2019s closing levels. <strong>10-year near 4.31% is ~1bp cheaper on the day, <\/strong>roughly in line with European counterparts.\u00a0European government bonds also decline. Treasury auction cycle begins with $69 billion 2-year note at 11:30am New York time and $70 billion 5-year at 1pm. WI 2-year yield near 3.79% is ~15bp richer than last month\u2019s, which tailed by 1.8bp<\/p>\n<p>In commodities, oil is higher with the Strait of Hormuz almost impassable after efforts to resume talks to end the Iran war stalled. Brent crude futures\u00a0rise\u00a0over 2% and briefly topped $108 a barrel after efforts to resume US-Iran talks faltered over the weekend. Precious metals are little changed while Bitcoin falls 0.5%.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s US economic data calendar slate is light &#8211; we only get the April Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30am &#8211; ahead of a heavy central bank schedule where major CBs are expected to hold ahead of the market pricing changes in June<\/p>\n<p><strong>Market Snapshot<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>S&amp;P 500 mini little changed<\/li>\n<li>Nasdaq 100 mini little changed<\/li>\n<li>Russell 2000 mini little changed<\/li>\n<li>Stoxx Europe 600 little changed<\/li>\n<li>DAX +0.4%<\/li>\n<li>CAC 40 +0.2%<\/li>\n<li>10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.31%<\/li>\n<li>VIX +0.4 points at 19.07<\/li>\n<li>Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1193.96<\/li>\n<li>euro +0.2% at $1.1746<\/li>\n<li>WTI crude +2.2% at $96.51\/barrel<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top Overnight News<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Iran has offered to end its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its blockade on the country and an end to the war, while proposing that discussions on the larger question of its nuclear program would come in a later phase. Trump is unlikely to accept the offer. AP<\/li>\n<li>Oil rose as Iran\u2019s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Russia for talks with Vladimir Putin, while traders shrugged off an Axios report of a potential interim Hormuz deal. BBG<\/li>\n<li>The US Secret Service is at risk of not being not being able to pay its employees by the end of the week, suggesting that a shutdown nears its breaking point: Semafor<\/li>\n<li>Kevin Warsh\u2019s path to Fed chair cleared after GOP holdout Thom Tillis dropped his resistance, following the DOJ\u2019s decision to end a criminal probe into Jerome Powell. A vote is set for Wednesday. BBG<\/li>\n<li>US drivers have started cutting back their spending at the pump in an attempt to blunt the impact of spiraling petrol prices triggered by the Iran war. Between February and March average petrol sales per station in the northeastern US fell 4.3 per cent in March, compared with 0.6 per cent growth in the same period last year, according to data from Upside, which tracks consumer spending at more than 23,000 petrol stations across the nation. FT<\/li>\n<li>With just over one-fourth of S&amp;P 500 companies reporting results for the first quarter, Wall Street\u2019s expectations for earnings suggest big U.S. companies are far healthier than wider economic concerns might indicate. WSJ<\/li>\n<li>DeepSeek is aggressively pitching low-priced-plans for its just-released flagship model, intensifying competition across a Chinese artificial intelligence industry trying to take on Silicon Valley\u2019s best. BBG<\/li>\n<li>US State Department has reportedly ordered a global warning over alleged AI IP theft involving DeepSeek and other Chinese firms: Reuters<\/li>\n<li>Meta\u2019s $2 billion acquisition of AI startup Manus was blocked by China, a surprise move to unwind a deal that\u2019s drawn fire for the leakage of technology to the US. BBG<\/li>\n<li>Profits at China&#8217;s industrial firms grew at their quickest pace in half a year last month, adding to broader signs of \u200can uneven economic recovery in the first quarter as policymakers brace for the impact of the Middle East war. RTRS<\/li>\n<li>Japan is moving to tighten the criteria for submitting shareholder proposals, signalling a growing backlash from companies frustrated by intensifying pressure from activist investors calling \u200cfor change. RTRS<\/li>\n<li>The US and Japan plan a dual-use partnership to counter China in the drone market: Kyodo\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Middle East News<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Iran has communicated a three-stage negotiation process to the US through intermediaries, according to Al Mayadeen citing Iranian reports.\u00a0The first stage would focus on ending the war and receiving guarantees to prevent recurrence. Second stage is to be focused on the Strait of Hormuz while the third stage would lead to the nuclear issues. Axios later announced a similar report, adding that US President Trump is to hold a situation room meeting on Iran on Monday.<\/li>\n<li>US President Trump cancelled sending Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for talks with Iran, saying there would be \u201ctoo much time wasted on travelling\u201d. Trump said the US \u201chas all the cards\u201d and Iran \u201chas none\u201d, adding that \u201cif they want to talk, all they have to do is call\u201d. Trump later said the US would not travel \u201c15, 16 hours\u201d to meet \u201cpeople nobody\u2019s ever heard of\u201d, adding that US envoys were not meeting Iran\u2019s actual leader. Trump claimed Iran sent a \u201cmuch better\u201d offer within 10 minutes of him cancelling the envoys\u2019 trip, but said Iran had offered \u201ca lot but not enough\u201d.<\/li>\n<li>US President Trump said Iran wants to talk and see if they can make a deal, US officials negotiating with Iran are dealing with the people who are in charge now. He also stated that Iran plans to make an offer aimed at resolving US demands, according to Reuters.<\/li>\n<li>Iran&#8217;s Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on X that discussions in Oman\u00a0included focusing on ways to ensure the safe transit through Hormuz and that neighbours are the priority. He later stated in Russia, ahead of his meeting with Russian President Putin, that the visit to Islamabad was very good, in which conditions were reviewed for US-Iran talks to continue.<\/li>\n<li>Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi described his Pakistan visit as \u201cvery fruitful\u201d\u00a0and said Iran had shared a \u201cworkable framework to permanently end the war.\u201d According to reports citing Pakistani officials, Araghchi laid out Tehran&#8217;s negotiating demands as well as its reservations about US demands. In other talks, IRNA reported that the FM will travel to Muscat and Moscow to hold bilateral conversations, discuss current developments in the region, and the latest situation regarding the war.<\/li>\n<li>A trilateral meeting with the US, Iran and Pakistan will be considered only after Pakistan meet with Araghchi, a meeting between the US and Iran may not take place until Monday, Axios reported. US Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner is to hold separate talks with Pakistan on Sunday.<\/li>\n<li>Axios reported that a US official and a source said Ghalibaf\u00a0grew frustrated with the infighting in the Iranian leadership after the previous round of talks, and even threatened to step aside. It still remains unclear if he is the lead Iranian negotiator.<\/li>\n<li>Iran is reportedly &#8220;discussing the uranium and nuclear issue with friends and allies and is open for discussion at the negotiating table.&#8221;, Journalist Mallick reported.\u00a0Full post:&#8221;To my understanding, While Iran has proposed a structured operational mechanism for Strait of Hormuz which would lead to cessation of hostilities, at the same time, contrary to reported, Iran is discussing the uranium and nuclear issue with friends and allies and is open for discussion at the negotiating table.&#8221;.<\/li>\n<li>Hezbollah outlines that they will be keeping their weapons, and dismisses the prospect of direct talks with Israel regarding Lebanon.<\/li>\n<li>Iran&#8217;s proposal regarding Hormuz may be\u00a0rejected by Washington because it excludes nuclear discussions, Al Hadath reported citing regional officials.<\/li>\n<li>Senior Israeli officials have told their American counterparts that if Hezbollah continues its attacks against IDF soldiers, Israel will not be able to respond in a measured manner, Journalist Stein reported citing sources.<\/li>\n<li>Israeli military\u00a0reported hostile aircraft infiltration sirens sounded in northern Israel communities.<\/li>\n<li>Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the visit to Islamabad was very good, in which conditions were reviewed for US-Iran talks to continue.\u00a0Agreement has been made between Iran and Oman to continue consultations at an expert level.<\/li>\n<li>Israeli occupation forces\u00a0are shelling Gaza beaches from the sea, according to Al Jazeer sources.<\/li>\n<li>Iran gave the US a new proposal through Pakistani mediators for reaching a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war however postponing nuclear talks, Axios reported citing sources.\u00a0US President Trump to hold a situation room meeting on Iran on Monday.<\/li>\n<li>Israeli artillery shelling targets eastern Gaza City, Al Mayadeen reported.<\/li>\n<li>Iran&#8217;s Foreign Minister Araghchi\u00a0posted on X that discussions in Oman included focusing on ways to ensure the safe transit through Hormuz and that neighbours are the priority.<\/li>\n<li>Lack of trust between Washington and Tehran hinders resumption of negotiations, Pakistani source tells Asharq.<\/li>\n<li>Iranian F-5 fighter jet reportedly breaches US air defences and hits a US military base in Kuwait, according to Press TV.<\/li>\n<li>US CENTCOM\u00a0announces that the US has directed 38 ships to turn around or return to post since the start of the blockade.<\/li>\n<li>UKMTO\u00a0reported of an incident occurring 6NM northeast of Somalia, where unknown persons seized the cargo ship and diverted it into territorial waters.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Asia-Pac stocks pointed to a broadly positive start of the week, mainly spurred by an Axios report detailing that Iran gave the US a new proposal,<\/strong> through Pakistani mediators, for reaching a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war. It is a three-stage proposal, with the halting of the war and focus on the Strait of Hormuz highlighted as the key points before the third stage of nuclear issues. ASX 200 was the underperformer, being weighed on by losses in Energy and Utilities following Friday\u2019s risk-on sentiment hitting energy prices. Among the weakness, Atlas Arteria outperformed after IFM investors offers to buy the Co. for AUD 4.75\/security. Nikkei 225 initially traded with a lack of direction before being boosted following the Axios report. The index has regained the 60,000 handle and continued to gain towards 61,000. KOSPI was the clear outperformer as it tracks its peers\u2019 stateside. This was spearheaded by Intel (INTC) after the Co. reported positive Q1 earnings and beat forecasts.\u00a0Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded with mild gains. Chips across Asia are performing well, with China\u2019s SMIC also benefiting from the announcement that DeepSeek\u2019s V4 is adapted to run on Huawei chips.<\/p>\n<p><em>Top Asian News<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Japanese\u00a0Coincident Index Final (Feb) 116.3 (Prev. 117.9).<\/li>\n<li>Japanese\u00a0Leading Economic Index Final (Feb) 113.3 vs. Exp. 112.4 (Prev. 112.1).<\/li>\n<li>Chinese\u00a0Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY (Mar) Y\/Y 15.5% (Prev. 15.2%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>European bourses are mostly firmer this morning, albeit modestly so. The DAX 40 (+0.4%) leads vs peers, whilst the AEX (-0.3%) lags a touch.\u00a0<\/strong>European sectors opened with a positive bias, but the leaderboard now looks mixed. Topping the pile is Retail, led by Adidas, +1.6%, where two runners wore its new ultra-light racing shoe to break the two-hour barrier at the 2026 London Marathon. Also performing well is the Energy sector, with oil benchmarks firmer on the day. At the bottom of the pile are the consumer-sensitive Optimised Personal Care and Food Beverage &amp; Tobacco<\/p>\n<p><em>Top European News<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ECB SAFE Survey: Firms reported further net tightening of bank loan interest rates and other loan conditions related to price and non-price factors.\u00a0Firms reported further net tightening of bank loan interest rates and other loan conditions related to price and non-price factors. Financing needs remained stable, but availability of bank loans deteriorated marginally. Firms expected stronger increases in selling prices and non-labour input costs, whereas wage expectations moderated slightly. Short-term inflation expectations increased markedly, with medium-term inflation expectations remaining stable.<\/li>\n<li>UK Chancellor Reeves\u00a0is to deliver speeches to set out a responsible plan to see households and businesses through the Iran war fallout, according to the FT citing sources; the Chancellor will also set out measures in June to boost growth.<\/li>\n<li>UK ministers have voiced concerns about the damage to the tech sector and its alliance with the US as the PM\u00a0plans for closer relations with the EU, FT reported citing sources.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Central Banks<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida to join policy meeting by phone due to health reasons.<\/li>\n<li>Swiss Sight Deposits (CHF)\u00a0(w\/e Apr 24th): total 455.91bln (prev. 453.55bln), of domestic banks 433.01bln (prev. 433.27bln).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Trade\/Tariffs<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>India and New Zealand have signed a FTA, lowering and eliminating tariffs across a range of goods, and granting 100% duty-free access for Indian exporters.<\/li>\n<li>China&#8217;s Commerce Ministry\u00a0is to hold a press conference on Thursday 30th at 08:00BST\/03:00EDT to brief on recent key trade and commerce developments.<\/li>\n<li>China&#8217;s MOFCOM issues a statement on the EU Industrial Accelerator Act, calling it discriminative for trade; will closely monitor and engage in dialogue with the EU but threatens countermeasures if the EU presses ahead.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Geopolitics<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A drone has hit the transportation department of Ukraine&#8217;s Zaporizhzhia plant, according to reported.<\/li>\n<li>Iranian FM Araghchi has arrived in Russia ahead of his meeting with Russian President Putin, Tasnim reported.<\/li>\n<li>North Korea&#8217;s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un\u00a0said that North Korea will continue to support Russia, KCNA reported.<\/li>\n<li>Russia&#8217;s Foreign Minister reportedly\u00a0said Russia is willing to hold talks with the US on a Ukraine settlement.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>FX<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>FX shows a risk-on picture not seen across other asset classes, in a move seemingly driven by a weaker greenback, with antipodeans and generally high-beta FX outperforming.<\/li>\n<li>DXY\u00a0is lower by 0.2%, well off highs of 99.34 made at the Asia re-open and below both 100 and 200 DMAs, which offered support last week. This comes as\u00a0Axios reported that Iran gave the US a new proposal for reaching a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, news which has helped the risk complex.\u00a0The plan calls for an extension of the ceasefire so parties can work on a three-stage plan, with nuclear negotiations the final stage. The report noted that Pakistani mediators had given the proposal to the US, though it was unclear if the US would cooperate. The US-specific docket is light ahead of this week&#8217;s FOMC meeting, with just 2 and 5yr supply, and Dallas Fed Manufacturing scheduled.<\/li>\n<li>Away from geopolitics, and perhaps another story which has offered the USD: Senator Tillis said he was dropping his decision to block the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair following the DoJ&#8217;s decision to drop the criminal case against Fed Chair Powell. The vote on Warsh&#8217;s confirmation is scheduled for 29th April.<\/li>\n<li>Antipodeans\u00a0outperform, the cross is choppy and around the unchanged mark as both currencies benefit against the weaker Buck following that Axios report.\u00a0NZD\/USD, AUD\/USD +0.6%\/+0.5%.\u00a0CAD\u00a0also does well, helped by the risk environment alongside Crude benchmarks, which are firmer on the session.<\/li>\n<li>EUR\/GBP\u00a0is a touch firmer after it bounced off a 0.8654 low to try to recoup last week&#8217;s modest losses following strong UK data. Both currencies look to expected holds from the ECB and BoE. In the UK, political angst persists, with the Daily Mail reporting that former Deputy PM Rayner told Labour MPs the time to oust the PM was \u201cnow or never\u201d.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Fixed Income<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A softer start to the week, as energy upside lifts yields and weighs on fixed benchmarks. However, the magnitude of fixed action is relatively limited amid mixed geopolitical reporting, awaiting supply and the week&#8217;s packed central bank agenda, which includes the BoE, ECB &amp; Fed.<\/li>\n<li>USTs\u00a0as low as 111-01, with downside of 5+ ticks at most. If the move extends, we look to 110-27+ and 110-26+ from Friday and Thursday, before attention then turns to 110-22+, 110-17+ and the 110-16 MTD low from earlier in April. The US agenda is, aside from geopolitical updates, headlined by 2yr &amp; 5yr note supply ahead of Wednesday&#8217;s Fed.<\/li>\n<li>Gilts\u00a0gapped lower by 23 ticks and then slipped another 12 to an 87.13 low. Modestly underperforming peers, given the above. Elsewhere for the UK, we count down to Thursday&#8217;s BoE, a hold is expected and priced, with attention on any clues via the statement, forecasts, or individual Committee members&#8217; remarks as to when a move might occur. Currently, markets imply 25bps hikes in July (+30bps) and December (+54bps).<\/li>\n<li>Bunds\u00a0in-fitting with the above. Somewhere between USTs and Gilts in magnitude. As low as 125.48, posting losses of 17 ticks at most. Driven by the above geopolitical developments. No move to a weak GfK survey for May, as consumer sentiment was hit again by the Middle East conflict, resulting in a sharp decrease in income expectations and the 12-month view moved to a level similar to April 2022, at the start of the Ukraine conflict.<\/li>\n<li>China delays foreign debt sales with USD 100bln of bonds due, Bloomberg reported.<\/li>\n<li>EU\u00a0sells EUR 6bln vs exp. EUR 7bln 2.50% 2031, 3.25% 2036, and 4.00% 2044 Bonds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Commodities<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>WTI and Brent\u00a0are both firmer this morning by circa. 2.6%, as the complex digests several geopolitical updates, with the overarching theme overall a lack of progress between US-Iran.<\/li>\n<li>To recap,\u00a0US President Trump cancelled his envoy\u2019s trip to Pakistan, suggesting that it would be a waste of time. He claimed that Iran sent a \u201cmuch better\u201d offer within 10 minutes of him cancelling the trip, but it was \u201cnot enough\u201d. Since, Axios reported that Iran had communicated a three-stage negotiation process to the US through intermediaries. A first stage would involve securing guarantees to prevent another war, with the next stage to focus on the Strait and then finally on nuclear issues. Given that this proposal pushes the nuclear issue to the back of the agenda, it is not likely that the US will accept the proposal. The focus ahead will be on Trump, who is reportedly to hold a situation room meeting on Iran.<\/li>\n<li>WTI and Brent\u00a0climbed higher throughout the European morning;\u00a0Brent Jun\u201926\u00a0sits at the upper end of a USD 106.19\/bbl to USD 108.24\/bbl range, with\u00a0WTI Jun\u201926\u00a0also at highs within a USD 94.99\/bbl to USD 96.87\/bbl band. Both contracts jumped at the open as markets digested Trump\u2019s cancellation of talks, but then slipped on the aforementioned Axios report. The proposal indicates some openness to negotiations, but given that the nuclear issue has been pushed to the back of the agenda, it is unlikely to be accepted by the US. A factor which likely explains the complete reversal of the initial downside following the report.<\/li>\n<li>Spot gold\u00a0is essentially flat this morning and currently trades within a USD 4,672-4,729\/oz range. It currently oscillates around its 21 DMA (4,718\/oz), with the high of the day a touch short of its 100 DMA (4,746\/oz). Elsewhere,\u00a0base metals hold a slight negative bias, but with slight strength in Aluminium prices, given the elongated disruption of supplies from the Middle East region. As for\u00a03M LME Copper, it is currently a little lower within a USD 13,259-13,376.03\/t range.<\/li>\n<li>Iran suspends exports of steel slabs and sheets until 30th May, Iranian media reported.<\/li>\n<li>Citi\u00a0raises its base case average Brent price forecasts to USD 110\/bbl for Q2, USD 95\/bbl for Q3, USD 80\/bbl for Q4. Flows could easily remain disrupted through the end of June, which could see Brent reach USD 150\/bbl.<\/li>\n<li>Goldman Sachs\u00a0raises its Brent forecast to USD 100\/bbl this quarter and USD 90\/bbl in Q4, due to prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and extreme inventory draws.<\/li>\n<li>Japanese PM Takaichi\u00a0said Japan has secured stable oil supply into next year, closely watching the Middle East impact on the economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>US Event Calendar<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>10:30 am: United States Apr Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 0.8, prior -0.2<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>DB&#8217;s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Tomorrow marks exactly two months since the strikes on Iran began. While there is currently a rolling, open ended ceasefire that started on 8 April, the risk of it collapsing at any point remains real. Just as the weekend news looked like it was leaning negatively though, last night reports came through that Iran have offered the US a fresh proposal to reopen the strait and end the war. However as Axios and others reported, this proposal postpones talks on nuclear capabilities. So it\u2019s unclear whether the US Administration would tolerate that but for now the market is trading better than it might have done to start the week. This fresh development follows President Trump cancelling a planned visit to Islamabad by envoys Kushner and Witkoff, saying that the Iranians had \u201coffered a lot, but not enough.\u201d Iranian President Pezeshkian, meanwhile, said Iran would not agree to \u201cimposed negotiations under threats or blockade.\u201d The coming week will no doubt bring further developments, though predicting them is close to impossible. When the conflict began more than eight weeks ago, I would have expected it to be comfortably over by now, with markets having followed the usual playbook and fully recovered. The market reaction has largely played out, but for the wrong reasons: the conflict is not over. That said, markets still appear to price in a meaningful chance that it will be resolved relatively soon. Polymarket, for example, suggests a 56% probability of traffic returning to normal by 30 June, although this briefly reached 91% ten days ago when it appeared that Iran was reopening the Strait.<\/p>\n<p>In other news, one notable development yesterday was Senator Thom Tillis\u2019s decision to lift his block on Kevin Warsh\u2019s nomination to chair the Fed. Tillis said he was satisfied with the Department of Justice\u2019s decision late last week to drop its investigation into the Fed refurbishment. There had been some concern on Saturday that the DoJ had left the door open to reopening the probe at a later stage, which might not have been sufficient to clear the way. However, Tillis indicated that he had received assurances that gave him enough comfort to remove his block.<\/p>\n<p>In terms of overnight markets, Brent crude is up +1.22%, marking the sixth consecutive session of gains, trading at $106.61 per barrel, following the weekend news. However regional equities are strong with the KOSPI (+2.57%) now at +57.6% YTD. The Nikkei (+1.88%) is also strong. Other markets are a bit more subdued with the Hang Seng (+0.15%), the CSI (+0.21%), and the Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) slightly higher but with the S&amp;P\/ASX 200 (-0.14%) dipping. S&amp;P 500 (+0.13%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.34%) and STOXX (+0.33%) futures are edging higher. both trading in positive territory. Meanwhile, 10-year USTs have risen by +1.9bps, to 4.32% as we go to print.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Looking ahead, with central bank meetings for every G7 country this week \u2014 alongside 44% of the S&amp;P 500 reporting by market capitalisation, including five of the Mag 7 \u2014 it is shaping up to be a blockbuster week, even before factoring in ongoing Iranian war newsflow.<\/p>\n<p>The Bank of Japan meets tomorrow, followed by the Fed and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. Thursday then brings decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England. All are expected to remain on hold, but the key question will be how each central bank\u2019s reaction function is shaped by the conflict and the associated stagflation risks. Our new &#8220;Rate Check&#8221; podcast previews the week&#8217;s meetings with various guests from our research department. Click here for more on how to find it\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>From an earnings perspective, 22% of S&amp;P 500 market capitalisation \u2014 across just four companies \u2014 reports after the close on Wednesday, when Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta release their Q1 results. Apple follows on Thursday.<\/p>\n<p>Turning to the Fed meeting mid week, our economists\u2019 base case is that any meaningful change in guidance is deferred until June. That said, there is a tangible risk that communication skews modestly hawkish \u2014 either through subtle language tweaks around \u201cadditional policy adjustments\u201d or via Chair Powell signalling a more symmetrical assessment of risks to the dual mandate. An explicit acknowledgement that risks to price stability and employment are now more evenly balanced would likely be interpreted as a marginally less accommodative stance.<\/p>\n<p>Geopolitics will loom large in Powell\u2019s press conference, given developments in the Middle East. With uncertainty still elevated, Powell is likely to emphasise that policymakers cannot yet assess the precise implications for growth or inflation. However, he may also note that persistently high oil prices raise the risk of inflation becoming more entrenched over time. Overall, the tone should be consistent with a Fed prepared to remain on the sidelines for a while longer.<\/p>\n<p>Alongside the meeting, Thursday\u2019s personal income and spending report \u2014 and particularly core PCE \u2014 will be equally important. Income is expected to rebound by 0.6% after a 0.1% decline, while consumption is forecast to rise 0.5%. DB expects the core PCE deflator to increase by 0.25% month on month, lifting the year on year rate to around 3.13%. If realised, Q1 core PCE inflation will average just above 3.0%, marking five years since the Fed\u2019s preferred underlying inflation gauge last ran at or below its 2% target. Our latest projections see core CPI and core PCE at 2.7% and 2.9% respectively by Q4 2026, highlighting how recent energy related shocks continue to complicate the path back to target.<\/p>\n<p>Other data ahead of the meeting are unlikely to materially alter the Fed\u2019s decision. Consumer confidence tomorrow is expected to fall to 88.8 from 91.9, reflecting heightened geopolitical concerns. More important than the headline will be the \u201cjobs plentiful\u201d and \u201cjobs hard to get\u201d components, which historically track movements in the unemployment rate and offer insight into perceived labour market momentum.<\/p>\n<p>Wednesday brings a cluster of releases that will refine expectations for Thursday\u2019s advance Q1 GDP estimate. Housing starts are forecast to rise to 1.425 million from 1.35 million, with permits edging up to 1.390 million. Durable goods orders are expected to fall 0.4% for the headline, but ex transportation and core orders are projected to rise 0.5%, pointing to continued strength in capital investment. Together with the advance goods trade balance, these data frame our economists\u2019 2.8% annualised forecast for Q1 real GDP \u2014 a sharp rebound from 0.5% in Q4.<\/p>\n<p>Thursday\u2019s data batch is the most consequential of the week, even beyond core PCE. While DB still expects 2.8% inflation adjusted growth for Q1 GDP, the composition has shifted meaningfully. Consumer spending is forecast to contribute 1.2pp, down from 1.9pp in Q4, while non residential fixed investment accelerates sharply to 7.5%. Final sales to private domestic purchasers \u2014 our preferred measure of underlying demand \u2014 are projected to edge up to 2.0%. Risks to the headline GDP number appear broadly balanced, particularly given volatility in trade flows.<\/p>\n<p>Elsewhere on Thursday we see the employment cost index and the Chicago PMI. Friday kicks off May with the ISM manufacturing index and vehicle sales. While business surveys may not yet fully reflect recent war developments, they should provide early signals on whether firms share markets\u2019 confidence that the conflict will have limited and temporary economic effects. Last week\u2019s flash PMI suggested US businesses remain far more confident on this front than their European counterparts.<\/p>\n<p>In Europe, attention turns to preliminary April CPI prints, with Germany and Spain reporting first on Wednesday and the broader euro area numbers on Thursday, alongside advance Q1 GDP. Ahead of that, Tuesday brings the ECB\u2019s consumer expectations and bank lending surveys.<\/p>\n<p>In Japan, key releases include April Tokyo CPI on Friday and March activity data on Thursday, while China sees its official April PMIs on Thursday, following industrial profits for March earlier in the week. As usual, the full day by day calendar appears at the end.<\/p>\n<p>Recapping last week now and markets lost their momentum as concern rose about an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, there was more of a risk-on move into the weekend, driven by the news that Iran\u2019s foreign minister was heading to Islamabad, and then that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were going from the US side. So that raised hopes that some kind of de-escalation pathway might still be open. Ultimately that proved premature as we found out over the weekend. The positive mood at the very end of the week was cemented after it was announced that the US Department of Justice were dropping the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell, which raised expectations that Kevin Warsh would be confirmed on time as the new Fed Chair.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Yet despite that more optimistic tone into the weekend, Brent crude oil still rose +16.54% last week (+0.25% Friday) to $105.33\/bbl. That came as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, adding to fears about longer-term supply disruption. And it was clear that investors were pricing in a prolonged period of higher oil prices, as the 6-month Brent future also moved up +8.88% last week (-0.32% Friday) to $86.46\/bbl.<br \/>\nFor markets, those oil moves led to growing expectations of an extended stagflationary shock. Indeed, that was clear from inflation expectations, which moved up again in response. For instance, the US 1yr inflation swap rose +29bps last week to 3.378%, and the Eurozone inflation swap was up +47bps to 3.44%. And in turn, that led investors to price in a more hawkish response from central banks. For instance, for the ECB the probability of a hike by the June meeting rose from 62% to 82%. Meanwhile, the probability of a Fed cut by the December meeting had fallen from 61% to just 23% by Thursday, before rising back up to 46% on Friday on news of the DoJ probe into Powell being dropped, which raised expectations that a Warsh-led Fed could still deliver easing this year.<\/p>\n<p>With markets pricing in a bigger stagflationary shock and a more hawkish response across most of the week, it was a tough backdrop for bonds. So the 10yr bund yield rose +3.4bps last week (-1.5bps Friday) to 2.99%, and the 10yr Treasury yield was up +5.2bps last week (-2.4bps Friday) to 4.30%. In Japan, the moves were relatively smaller, but even there the 10yr yield was up +1.5bps last week (+1.0bps Friday) to 2.44%.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>For equities, there was a more divergent performance by region. In the US, the S&amp;P 500 posted a 4th consecutive weekly gain to hit a new record, rising +0.55% last week (+0.80% Friday). Indeed, the last time the S&amp;P posted four consecutive weekly gains was back in October 2024. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index continued its relentless rally, posting a record 18th consecutive daily gain on Friday, with a rise of +10.02% last week, including +4.32% on Friday after strong results from Intel. Japan\u2019s Nikkei also advanced +2.12% (+0.97% Friday). But in Europe, the STOXX 600 fell -2.54% last week (-0.58% Friday), reflecting the region\u2019s greater exposure to an energy shock that was also visible in the weak April flash PMIs.<\/p>\n<p>Finally in credit, there was a mixed performance last week amidst the various headlines. In the US, IG spreads were flat, but HY spreads widened +6bps. Conversely in Europe, IG spreads widened +2bps, but HY spreads tightened -10bps.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>      <span class=\"field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden\"><a title=\"View user profile.\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/users\/tyler-durden\" lang=\"\" class=\"username\" xml:lang=\"\">Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden\">Mon, 04\/27\/2026 &#8211; 08:34<\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/ES%202026-04-27_8-04-08.jpg?itok=2o_4NDhR\" title=\"Futures Flat At All Time Highs Ahead Of Huge Week, Semis Set For 19th Day Of Gains\" \/><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Futures Flat At All Time Highs Ahead Of Huge Week, Semis Set For 19th Day Of Gains Risk sentiment improved overnight on another Axios report that Iran has given the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz\u00a0with more detailed nuclear talks expected later. Oil pares early gains, and US equity futures jumped&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=592019\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Futures Flat At All Time Highs Ahead Of Huge Week, Semis Set For 19th Day Of Gains<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":592009,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[20,23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-592019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-empowerment","category-national-security","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592019","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=592019"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592019\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/592009"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=592019"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=592019"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=592019"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}