{"id":591843,"date":"2026-04-26T22:40:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-26T22:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=591843"},"modified":"2026-04-26T22:40:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-26T22:40:00","slug":"war-schmwar-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=591843","title":{"rendered":"War Schmwar"},"content":{"rendered":"

War Schmwar<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities<\/em><\/p>\n

Markets have been almost totally dismissive of the conflict in Iran. Frankly, the number of countries, including oil-rich nations, that had been firing at each other seemed quite high, yet most markets shrugged it off. While the Strait remained closed, or blockaded, or blocked, the market remained in Open Sesame <\/a>mode this week.<\/p>\n

Moonshot<\/p>\n

Artemis II wasn\u2019t the only \u201cmoonshot\u201d we\u2019ve seen.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The SOX index has jumped almost 50% since March 30th. That would be incredible, but 18 straight days of gains is wildly impressive<\/strong>! (Even the NY Mets could only do the same thing 12 days in a row, but in the other direction).<\/p>\n

The lower chart is RSI (Relative Strength Indicator and one of my favorite technicals to look at). This index went from the cusp of oversold, to heavily oversold, to overbought territory in 2 weeks and gets \u201cmore\u201d overbought by the day. Every strong chip earnings report not only \u201cskyrockets\u201d that stock, but it also pulls up the entire sector.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The AI and Data Center Buildout narrative remains completely intact even as \u201cwar\u201d rages. If anything, the need for domestic AI and Data Centers is growing as physical security concerns continue in the\u00a0Middle East.<\/p>\n

Not Sure if \u201cLaggards\u201d Is the \u201cRight\u201d Word, But\u2026<\/h3>\n

Quantum computing has bounced, but unlike the semis, it is not even at the highs of the year, let alone the highs from last year!<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

If you own a \u201cquantum\u201d ETF, you likely have seen far better returns in the past few weeks than this chart would indicate. But that is because the ETFs own a lot of semiconductors. QTUM (Defiance Quantum ETF), the largest \u201cquantum\u201d ETF at $4.1 billion, has TER as its largest holding. INTC, STM, and MU were the next largest holdings. So, I tried to identify 4 tickers from WQTM that seemed to be more \u201cpure play\u201d quantum.<\/p>\n

We have yet to see a real breakout in Uranium and Rare Earths stocks.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

REMX (for Rare Earths and Critical Minerals) and URA have bounced, but Uranium is still lower than it was before the war. <\/strong>If you look at the \u201csmall reactors\u201d which were all the rage, their chart looks a lot more like the chart from the quantum stocks. Even in rare earths, names like MP, which the U.S. government invested in, is more than 35% lower than its high last October.<\/strong><\/p>\n

A warning sign? A rational reassessment? The next asset classes to \u201ccatch a bid\u201d?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bitcoin, where the news has generally been good, is still hanging around the $76k to $78k range. It has \u201crecovered\u201d the 100-day moving average, but has not rushed to \u201cclose the gap\u201d with the 50-DMA. I\u2019m watching this closely as another \u201cnext leg\u201d of this rally. I cannot help but wonder if some of the \u201cceiling\u201d on Bitcoin is due to concern that there may be some level of selling pressure from a country like Iran. Iran may not have Bitcoin, but given the fact that they allegedly asked for \u201csafe passage\u201d payments in crypto, it seems plausible that they do. Given the blockade and seizure of vessels, it would create pressure to sell (or transfer it to someone else who sells it) to fund their economy (if they have any).<\/p>\n

I\u2019m leaning towards a \u201cbreakout\u201d as people look for anything remotely adjacent to new tech\/chips that isn\u2019t at its highs.<\/p>\n

Markets Ignoring Stubborn Oil Prices Out the Curve<\/h3>\n

While we still see issues in LNG, Diesel, and Jet Fuel (also in the distillates and chemical industry), let\u2019s go back to the big 2 \u2013 WTI and Brent.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

WTI spiked to $120 March 9th and again got to almost $120 on April 7th. It is \u201ccomfortably\u201d lower now, at $95. Brent spiked to $120 three times during the conflict and is \u201conly\u201d at $106. A bit less comforting than WTI.<\/p>\n

But the story, as several people in the admin have pointed to, is what is happening to oil \u201cout the\u00a0curve.\u201d When the admin was pointing this out, there was a pretty quick drop from \u201celevated\u201d front end contracts as you moved out the curve. Now we are sitting at just under $80 for the November contract<\/strong>. That is closer to the highs of this conflict. The November contracts are now near their highs (since that \u201ccrazy\u201d first weekend). It is difficult to be encouraged by this.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The further out the curve you go, the more it includes people \u201cin the know\u201d and less about speculation. And this pricing is consistent with the warnings that we keep hearing from participants in the physical products. I suspect that even in the event of a good deal with Iran, pricing out the curve doesn\u2019t back down much from here.<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is possible that equities are fully pricing this in and don\u2019t care. That the AI and Data Center story and current round of earnings are enough to cover this possibility.<\/p>\n

I cannot help but wonder if we are being a bit complacent, especially since AFFORDABILITY <\/strong>has been an issue and has not dissipated in any way, shape, or form (at least not for the \u201caverage\u201d American).<\/p>\n

Maybe I\u2019m looking too hard for something that might derail the rally <\/strong>(as opposed to the prior section when we were looking for what might benefit from the next wave), but I do have some concerns that people \u201cin the know,\u201d already \u201cknow\u201d oil is going to remain uncomfortably high (for consumers) even if a good deal is reached.<\/p>\n

Bottom Line<\/h3>\n

On rate<\/strong>s, 4.25% is still the \u201cmidpoint\u201d of our range. I think you buy 10s above 4.4% and sell if we get to 4.1%. Maybe a touch too wide of a range, but there is a lot of noise out there.<\/p>\n

On credit, <\/strong>IG remains boring. HY has some interesting risks, so maybe a touch more cautious there, while I cannot help but want to nibble at the private credit\/BDC space. IGV (software ETF) hung in last week, despite some headlines from the private credit side that could have hurt, and despite the massive rally in AI\/Data Centers \u2013 which until recently didn\u2019t seem good for software. IGV, BDCs, and Private Credit seem to be various forms of the same trade, and it is difficult not to scale in a little here, once again under the theory that they are under-owned and at some point capital will come looking for stocks with a story that is well off its highs.<\/p>\n

On equity<\/strong>. European ProSec! Is Europe finally getting the joke? They are lending money to Ukraine to buy weapons. It has been reported that Sweden has been interdicting \u201cghost\u201d ships to stop Russian oil sales. Many of the European stocks in the ProSec\u2122 theme have been outperforming similar stocks in the U.S. Yes, Europe is more exposed to oil prices than we are, but that is precisely why you want to buy into their energy industry \u2013 the realization that they have to do something to reduce their exposure to regions outside of their control and harness their own resources!<\/p>\n

I have to admit, I\u2019m not even checking (or at least barely checking) Twitter for Iran headline<\/strong>s. Markets are closed, so nothing to say about them now, and by Sunday night, the story may have changed anyway, which in turn might look completely different by Monday morning. As a strategist, I think I\u2019m either in the depression or acceptance phase of grief as it relates to trying to manage risk around the conflict.<\/p>\n

Good luck and Academy will continue to try to bring our unique resources to bear on the geopolitical situation to help you navigate it as smoothly as possible!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nSun, 04\/26\/2026 – 18:40<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

War Schmwar By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities Markets have been almost totally dismissive of the conflict in Iran. Frankly, the number of countries, including oil-rich nations, that had been firing at each other seemed quite high, yet most markets shrugged it off. While the Strait remained closed, or blockaded, or blocked, the market remained… Continue reading War Schmwar<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":591834,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[20,23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-591843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-empowerment","category-national-security","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/591843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=591843"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/591843\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/591834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=591843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=591843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=591843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}