{"id":589736,"date":"2026-04-21T14:20:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T14:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=589736"},"modified":"2026-04-21T14:20:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T14:20:00","slug":"the-high-man-in-the-castle-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/?p=589736","title":{"rendered":"The High Man In The Castle"},"content":{"rendered":"

The High Man In The Castle<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

By Michael Every of Rabobank<\/em><\/p>\n

The world is again waiting to see what comes out of US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan as the two-week ceasefire deadline looms. Again, it\u2019s a binary outcome: <\/strong>war, with threatened strikes on bridges and power plants in Iran, then perhaps regionally, and an extended closure of Hormuz; or peace, and energy and key goods flowing again.<\/p>\n

The markets have decided peace will be the outcome. <\/strong>Because markets. Yes, there are times when bad news logically justifies a rally, e.g., in a real threat of nuclear war, go long: it may not happen, and it can\u2019t hurt if it did.\u00a0<\/strong>However, when the threat is painful and potentially long-lasting, but not existential, does that logic hold? If so, why bother with geopolitical analysis (and many market participants don\u2019t)? Everything works out in the end, you can\u2019t afford to be the only fund manager who misses the inevitable rally, so just \u2018buy all the things.\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

Philip K. Dick\u2019s \u2018The Man in the High Castle\u2019 is set in a 1962 where the Axis won WW2 and an occupied-US underground shares that on another plane of existence, things worked out differently. They are led by the ancient Chinese Book of Changes, the \u2018I Ching\u2019; today, markets view all existence as led by \u2018I kerching<\/strong><\/em>!\u2019 Yet both views can be flawed. The \u2018reality\u2019 where the Axis lost WW2 is also <\/em>not our world – rather, the British Empire under Churchill is gaining the upper hand in a global struggle with the US. Nobody knows what happens next with Iran<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Is Mr Market \u2018The High Man in the Castle<\/strong><\/em>\u2019 in thinking everything always works out for him? Is whomever the actual Iranian decision maker the same if thinking the US won\u2019t pull the trigger again if there is no deal, and that Iran wins from that pummeling? Is President Trump if supposing the Iranians are rational rather than theological? We may not have long to find out.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

For those who pay attention to geopolitics, there are some potentially optimistic signs<\/strong>. In the Middle East, China\u2019s Xi held talks with Saudi\u2019s MBS and made clear Hormuz needs to reopen<\/strong>. At the same time, Pakistan was told not to send a $1.5bn order of weapons to Sudan, which the Saudis were paying for, and a $4bn deal for the Libyan National Army is also on hold. Likewise, another round of Israel-Lebanon talks are set for Thursday to try to extend their ceasefire, which Iran links to its own, as Syria is cracking down on\u00a0Hezbollah. Even the European envoy to the Gaza Board of Peace is publicly optimistic about Hamas disarmament talks.<\/strong><\/p>\n

In Europe, Ukraine may be seeing a \u2018Second Miracle Year<\/a>\u2019 and \u201cFor the first time in years, outright victory seems possible\u201d via its drone strikes. That\u2019s as the EU hopes to realise its \u20ac90bn Ukraine loan within 48 hours<\/a> following the new government in Budapest. However, the new pro-Russian Bulgarian PM may see things differently alongside the Czech and Slovak leaders, while Romania\u2019s government looks about to fall<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the EU is bracing for delays to promised US weapons shipments due to the Iran war, as The Times says the UK isn\u2019t seizing Russian shadow fleet tankers in its waters because berthing and maintaining them could cost too much<\/strong>(!) Meanwhile, France and Germany are said to be considering proposals to give Ukraine only “symbolic” benefits during a normal EU accession process, without granting Kyiv access to the EU’s common budget or voting rights. In the same way there may be only symbolic weaponry if the US isn\u2019t able to step up? That\u2019s as the Wall Street Journal notes, \u2018In Germany, Everyone Is a Defence Manufacturer Now\u2019 as firms \u201cscramble to reinvent themselves as military vendors to tap into the country\u2019s accelerated rearmament.\u201d<\/p>\n

There are also further US-Europe tensions. The US just signed a military defense agreement with Morocco, which some suspect may soon host US military bases now located in Spain, which has been a loud anti-US voice under its current PM; that might suggest the US ability to threaten the Strait of Gibraltar in line with its other recent agreement with Indonesia vis-\u00e0-vis the Strait of Malacca. The White House is reportedly also looking at a report that backs Spain having to hand back Ceuta and Melilla, territories it holds in Morocco. German Chancellor Merz has also stated that Cuba poses no risk to third countries, and he does not see on what basis an intervention should take place \u2013 which will infuriate the Americans and do nothing to stop them if they intend to act on that front. (Which seems likely.)<\/p>\n

There are tensions in the Americas with Canada too, whose PM just stated that close economic ties with US are \u201ca weakness that must be corrected.\u201d He is also talking about boosting his armed forces \u2013 though the scale of the imbalance there should be clear when a headline today boasts, \u201cCanadian military beats recruitment target after 1,400 permanent residents sign up.\u201d<\/p>\n

By contrast, as Trump pushes a $1.5trn Pentagon budget, he just invoked the Cold War Defence Production Act<\/a> to force the private sector to move on coal supply chains, domestic petroleum production, natural gas transmission and LNG capacity, and power grid infrastructure. None of that is a quick fix in this crisis, but it is a fix the market won\u2019t provide by itself.<\/em><\/p>\n

There are additional tensions in Asia as China sends warships to the Pacific<\/a> while Japanese forces take part in exercises with the US and Philippines. Meanwhile, the crisis in Hormuz has seen Thailand\u2019s government to push ahead with its Landbridge project to connect the Andaman Sea to the Gulf of Thailand via new ports on each side connected by a railway and highway, in order to circumvent the Strait of Malacca. The project is seen as making little economic sense by the logistics industry, but that doesn\u2019t mean it might not make geopolitical sense to some players \u2013 and then draw the attention of others.<\/p>\n

On the trade front, China has released new regulations to counter the “unjustified” extraterritorial use of foreign laws, aimed at protecting its interests. This is seen as clashing with the EU\u2019s proposed regulations in this area, placing European firms in China in potential conflict with either one or the other. The European Chamber of Commerce in China has raised concern that the “broad scope, vague language and wide discretion” of the new Chinese rules goes far beyond similar statutes in the West.<\/p>\n

Yet if you are all about Mr Market then none of the above matters; all that does is today\u2019s Senate confirmation hearing for FOMC Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. Then again, once upon a time, these were dry affairs for dry men and women, but not in our present reality. Even the Financial Times is carrying an op-ed arguing that the Fed needs to reinvent itself and its mission; but they are thinking more along the lines of \u2018how much dot plot\u2019 rather than \u2018how do you finance a $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget?\u2019, \u2018How do you force dollar stablecoins on the world to boost fiscal space?\u2019, and \u2018What are central banks *for*?\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

More narrowly, Warsh\u2019s finances, which he has lots of, are seen as a potential line of attack for those opposed to his appointment: it\u2019s not so much that he\u2019s very rich, which is the assumed norm for Fed Chairs, but that some of those holdings might be opaque. Because we couldn\u2019t have any vested interests represented in Washington D.C., obviously. That would be unthinkable.<\/p>\n

Ask yourself what the version of you would have thought of these headlines in April 2016<\/strong>. Then ask yourself what you think they will read like in April 2036. Only then decide what to do.<\/p>\n

\u201cCan anyone alter fate? All of us combined… or one great figure… or someone strategically placed, who happens to be in the right spot. Chance. Accident. And our lives, our world, hanging on it.\u201d – <\/em>The Man in the High Castle.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nTue, 04\/21\/2026 – 10:20<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The High Man In The Castle By Michael Every of Rabobank The world is again waiting to see what comes out of US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan as the two-week ceasefire deadline looms. Again, it\u2019s a binary outcome: war, with threatened strikes on bridges and power plants in Iran, then perhaps regionally, and an extended… Continue reading The High Man In The Castle<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":589715,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[20,23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-589736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-empowerment","category-national-security","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/589736","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=589736"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/589736\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/589715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=589736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=589736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buglecall.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=589736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}